[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will pulse to near-
gale force tonight, then pulse to gale force each night during the
week. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the period of gale-
force winds.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front from 31N44W to 26N60W becomes
stationary to 26N69W. The parent low will drift southward into
the discussion waters, with gale-force winds spreading west of the
front Mon. Winds will diminish below gale-force on Tue night.
Seas in the area of gale-force winds will peak near 20 ft Mon
night into Tue.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information on both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to 00N44W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 03N between 12W
and the coast of Brazil near 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near the Florida Big Bend southwestward
to 22N94W to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 19N96W. There
previously was a trailing reinforcing cold front which has
dissipated to a remnant trough in the past few hours, within about
120 nm NW of the front to the east of 94W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are along and near the front. Fresh to
strong NW-N winds are between the front and trough with moderate
to fresh N winds elsewhere west of the front. Seas are 4-7 ft west
of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds and 4-7 ft seas are north
of 26N within 90 nm ahead of the front, with moderate to fresh
S-SW winds and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere east of 87W. Gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front extending from the Florida Big
Bend to Veracruz, Mexico will reach from the Straits of Florida to
the Yucatan Peninsula Mon evening before weakening as it exits
the basin. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds behind the
front will diminish Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front
shifts eastward across southeastern U.S. A strong low pressure
system will develop over east Texas Tue and move NE across the
southern U.S. The low will drag a strong cold front across the
Gulf of Mexico late Tue afternoon through Wed. Strong to near gale
force winds are expected over the NW and north-central Gulf Tue
and Tue night on both sides of the front, with an area of gale
force winds in the NW Gulf Tue afternoon into Tue evening. Gale
force winds are also possible offshore Veracruz Wed in the wake of
the front. Winds and seas across the basin will then gradually
subside by Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range
over the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. A weak trough is
analyzed in the Gulf of Honduras with scattered showers there.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Near gale to minimal gale force winds will pulse at night
near the coast of Colombia through the week. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night. A cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern
and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then
stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast winds in the wake of the
front will prevail in the northwest and north- central Caribbean
even after the front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the Atlantic waters.

A cold front from 31N44W to 26N60W becomes stationary to 26N69W.
Fresh to strong winds and seas of 7-11 ft are N of 29N between 44W
and 55W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere within 120 nm
either side of the front. Fresh to strong winds have developed
over the waters off Florida, along with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere west of 70W, locally strong offshore
northern Hispaniola. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere
over the remainder of waters N of 20N and W of 35W. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere, except fresh to strong from the
Iberian Peninsula southwestward through the Canary Islands due to
a tight pressure gradient. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range N of 20N
and W of 35W, and 6-9 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift southeast
of the area by early Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds off the
Florida coast are ahead of a strong cold front that is forecast
to push off the US coast tonight into Mon morning. This front is
expected to reach from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to
central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W to 26N70W and
stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then shift east of
55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected
behind the front along with building seas through mid- week.
Marine conditions improve Thu through Fri night.

$$
Lewitsky
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