[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222121
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds will pulse to near-
gale force tonight, then pulse to gale force each night during the
week. Seas will build to near 12 ft during the period of gale-
force winds.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front from 31N50W to 26N60W to
26N64W, becomes stationary to 26N74W. The parent low will drift
southward into the discussion waters, with gale-force winds
spreading west of the front Mon afternoon. Winds will diminish
below gale- force on Tuesday. Seas in the area of gale-force
winds will peak near 20 ft Mon night into Tue.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near
06N10W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 00N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 11N
east of 18W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Destin, Florida southwestward to
26N91W and to 20N97W. A reinforcing cold front extends from
Louisiana to N Mexico. Fresh to strong winds prevail west of the
first front, and east of that front N of 26N. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of the
first front, as well as over the NE Gulf ahead of that front.
Seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will merge late tonight from near
Tampa, Florida southwestward to 24N89W and to the Yucatan
Peninsula. The front will weaken as it reaches the far
southeastern Gulf by late Mon. Fresh to strong northwest to
north winds behind the front will diminish Mon as high pressure
in the wake of the front shifts eastward across the area. A
stronger cold front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Tue,
reach from near Mobile, Alabama southwestward to 25N94W and to
the southwestern Gulf by late Tue night, from near Tampa,
Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Wed night and to just
southeast of the area by late Thu. Strong to near-gale force
northwest to north winds will follow this front across the NW
Gulf Tue and Tue night. The front will also be preceded by
strong to near gale- force southerly winds. Occasional gusts to
gale- force may are expected on either side of the front, and a
gale warning may be posted in future forecasts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern
coast of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range
over the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Winds will pulse at night to minimal gale-force near the
coast of Colombia during the week. Moderate to fresh winds will
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. A cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu, enter the northwestern
and north-central Caribbean Thu night through early Fri, then
stall and dissipate. Fresh northeast winds in the wake of the
front will prevail in the northwest and north-central Caribbean
even after the front dissipates.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a
Gale Warning in the Atlantic waters.

A cold front from 31N50W to 26N60W to 26N64W, becomes stationary
to 26N74W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are
within 60 NM either side of the front N of 30N. Fresh to strong
winds have developed over the waters off Florida. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere W of 70W, with light to gentle winds
over the remainder of waters N of 20N and W of 35W. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range N of
20N and W of 35W, and 7-9 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift
southeast of the area by early Mon. Fresh to strong southerly
winds will off the Florida coast are ahead of a strong cold
front that is forecast to push off the US coast tonight into Mon
morning. This front is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W
to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then
shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds
are expected behind the front along with building seas through
mid-week. Marine conditions improve Thu through Fri night.

$$
AL
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