[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are expected
to end this morning by 12Z in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 72W and 75W. Seas will
be 8-12 ft. Just east of the warning area, strong to near gale
force winds will impact the Gulf of Venezuela with 4-7 ft seas. E
gales will pulse again on Mon night and Tue night.

Please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near
06N10W to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 01N24W to 01N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N and E of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from 28N83W to 31N87W. A stationary front
extends from 26N91W to 23N98W. A 1008 mb low is analyzed near
29N90W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the warm
front. Moderate to fresh W winds are noted in the vicinity of the
warm front along with 4-7 ft seas. Moderate SE-S winds prevail
elsewhere along with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the frontal system currently across the
northern gulf waters will merge with a cold front today and move
SE across the basin. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will
accompany this front through tonight. The next cold front will
enter the NW portion of the basin by midweek and continue moving
SE through the rest of the week. Strong to near gale force N winds
and rough seas will develop in the wake of the front across the
basin beginning on Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of
Colombia.

Subtropical high pressure extends a ridge SSW across the Caribbean
waters, which along with lower pressure in northern Colombia
tightens the pressure gradient, thus supporting the continuation
of mainly fresh trades across the eastern half of the basin along
with 5-8 ft seas, except fresh to strong in the central Caribbean
from 10N to 18N where seas are 6-10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail in the NW Caribbean with locally fresh winds near the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, locally to 5 ft
near the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast
period. Winds will pulse at night to minimal gale-force near the
coast of Colombia on Mon night and Tue night. Moderate to fresh
winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through midweek. A cold
front is expected to approach the Yucatan Channel area on Thu
enhancing winds/seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N72W, then becomes
stationary from that point to 27N77W.

Scattered showers are possible near and just ahead of the front.
Fresh to strong SW winds are north of 28N and east of the front
to around 60W. Gentle to moderate winds are north of the front.
Associated NW swell of 7-11 ft is north of 28N between 50W and
66W. A weak ridge is on either side of the trough with mainly
gentle to locally moderate winds north of 20N and west of 35W.
Seas are 4-7 ft north of 20N between 35W and 60W, and 2-5 ft west
of 20N.

A weak 1018 mb low pressure area is near 27N36W with a trough
from 31N36W through the low to 19N39W per recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SE winds are just east of
the trough with seas around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-9
ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters, except fresh
to strong north of 20N and east of 22W through the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds
will develop off the Florida coast today ahead of another cold
front that is forecast to push off the US coast tonight into Mon
morning. This front is expected to reach from near 31N70W to the
central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Mon, from near 31N61W
to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early Tue, then
shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are
expected behind the front along with building seas through
midweek.

$$
ERA
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