[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jan 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: NE to E gale force winds are expected
tonight in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia,
from 11N to 12N between 72W and 75W. Seas will be 8-12 ft. Gales
will begin at 22/0300 UTC, ending by 22/1200 UTC. Just east of the
warning area, strong to near gale force winds will impact the
Gulf of Venezuela with 4-7 ft seas. Please see the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa at the
coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02S18W to 02S21W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 02N21W to the Equator at 31W to near the coast of
Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 02S to 04N between 08W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 29.5N88W to
1010 mb low pressure near 28N94W, with a cold front trailing from
the low to north of Tampico, Mexico near 23N98W. A pre-frontal
trough is noted within 75-90 nm east-southeast of the low and cold
front. Scattered thunderstorms are found from 26N to 29N between
west-central Florida and the pre-frontal trough. Moderate to fresh
E-SE winds are noted along and just south of the warm front along
with 4-7 ft seas. Moderate SE-S winds prevail elsewhere along with
2-4 ft seas, except gentle to moderate W-NW winds behind the cold
front.

For the forecast, the warm front will lift northeastward of the
area tonight. The cold front will reach from near southeastern
Louisiana to 26N94W to 22N98W early Sun and become stationary over
the far southeastern Gulf by late Sun. Fresh to strong winds will
prevail in the vicinity of the front. The next strong cold front
is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Tue afternoon, reach
from near Mobile, Alabama to 26N92W and to the SW Gulf late Tue
night, then weaken as it reaches from near Tampa, Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula by late Wed night and from the Straits of
Florida to the NE Yucatan Peninsula by late Thu. Strong to near
gale force winds, with possible gusts to gale-force at times, may
occur behind the front on Tue along with strong to near-gale force
south to southwest winds ahead of it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean off the northern coast of
Colombia.

Subtropical high pressure extends a ridge SSW across the Caribbean
waters, which along with lower pressure in northern Colombia
tightens the pressure gradient, thus supporting the continuation
of mainly fresh trades across the eastern half of the basin along
with 5-8 ft seas, except fresh to strong in the central Caribbean
from 10N to 18N where seas are 6-10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail in the NW Caribbean with locally fresh winds near the Gulf
of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, locally to 5 ft
near the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue over
most of the central and eastern part of the Caribbean through
the forecast period. Winds are expected to pulse at night to
minimal gale-force near the coast of Colombia tonight, then to
near gale force through most of the week. Moderate to fresh
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. A
cold front is expected to approach the Yucatan Channel area Thu
enhancing winds/seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 26N75W, where it transitions
to a warm front north of the NW Bahamas to near Sebastian,
Florida. Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are
possible near and just ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds
are north of 29N and east of the front to around 55W. Gentle to
moderate winds are north of the front. Associated NW swell of 7-11
ft is north of 28N between 54W and 68W. A trough extends from
27N57W to 22N67W with scattered showers within 120 nm southeast of
the trough. A weak ridge is on either side of the trough with
mainly gentle to locally moderate winds north of 20N and west of
35W. Seas are 4-7 ft north of 20N between 35W and 60W, and 2-5 ft
west of 20N.

A weak 1020 mb low pressure area is near 27N36W with a trough from
31N37W through the low to 21N37W per recent ASCAT scatterometer
data. Moderate to fresh SE winds are just east of the trough with
seas around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-9 ft seas prevail
across the remainder of the waters, except fresh to strong north
of 20N and east of 22W through the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds ahead of
the cold front will shift east of the area tonight as the cold
front moves to the eastern part of the area. Fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop off the Florida coast on Sun ahead of
another cold front that is forecast to push off Sun night into
Mon morning. This front is expected to reach from near 31N70W to
the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Mon, from near
31N61W to 26N70W and stationary to east-central Cuba by early
Tue, then shift east of 55W Wed. Fresh to strong west to northwest
winds are expected behind this front along with building seas
through late Mon night.

$$
Lewitsky
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