[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181644
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1039
mb high pressure over the Azores and a 991 mb low pressure in the
Mediterranean Sea is inducing gale force winds near the coast of
Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zones Agadir and Tarfaya. A
cold front also extends off the coast of Morocco from 28N13W
across the Canary Islands to 31N28W. Meteo-France is forecasting
that the gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco will
continue from now through Thu morning, local time. The gale force
winds will mainly occur north of 29N and within 180 nm of the
coast of Morocco. Seas of 14 to 17 feet are likely within the gale
force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by Meteo-France at website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Sierra Leone from
09N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N20W to
02N35W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 04S to 01N between 07W and 14W, and from 03S to 03N between
43W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong southerly winds prevail across the central Gulf of Mexico,
in between a 1021 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic and
lower pressures over NE Mexico and Texas. The strongest winds are
likely occurring this morning from 22N to 28.5N between 88W and
95W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the area. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow will prevail in
the western Gulf ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter
the western Gulf tonight. The front will extend from the Florida
Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely
behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of
the front in the western Gulf late this week. Strong winds are
expected to develop this weekend in the northern and western Gulf
waters as the pressure gradient tightens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid to upper-level ridging over the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean Sea is providing subsidence and relatively dry air,
which is limiting any isolated shower activity across the basin.
A surface trough extends from the central Atlantic to the NE
Caribbean, ending near 16.5N64.5W. Cloudiness with possible
isolated showers prevails near and over the Virgin Islands. Fresh
trades prevail across the central and western Caribbean, while
mainly moderate trades are found over the eastern Caribbean. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft across most of the central Caribbean, except up to 9
ft off the coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-6 ft in the E Caribbean
and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean, except 5-6 ft in the Gulf of
Honduras.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will lead to
fresh to strong trade winds pulsing in the south-central
Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through the weekend. The
area of strong trade winds will expand across the central
Caribbean Sea Sun into early next week. Fresh to strong winds
will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Honduras into Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

For conditions north of 29N and east of 20W, which is north of the
Canary Islands and west of Morocco, please see the Special
Features section above.

A surface ridge axis extends from 30N54W to 27N62W to a 1021 mb
high pressure center near 26N67W to 27N76W to central Florida.
Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis, and across most of
the area from 23N to 28N between 60W and Florida. Some moderate
trade winds are farther south near the Greater Antilles. Moderate
SW to W winds are north of 29N and west of 60W, as a gale force
low pressure system is centered well north of the area, near
39N63W. Over the central Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front
extends from 31N52W to 26N55W. A surface trough continues from
26N55W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are present east of the trough axis, mainly north of 22N
between 48W and 53W. Another surface trough extends from 27N41W to
18N40W with isolated showers and tstorms east of the trough axis.
Wave heights of 3-4 ft off Florida increase eastward to the 6-8
ft range between 58W-68W. Seas are also 6-7 ft north of 30N as far
west as 76W. Seas of 7-9 ft prevail just north of Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands.

In the E Atlantic, fresh winds are present across much of the area
northeast of a line extending from the Cabo Verde Islands to
23N40W to 31N41W, with seas of 7-9 ft. Seas of 8-9 ft in mixed
swell prevail across the waters north of 22N between 35W-60W.
Farther south in the tropical Atlantic waters, moderate NE to E
trades and seas of 6-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
area, and become centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into
late week. On the NW periphery of this ridge, strong to near gale
force SW winds will develop offshore NE Florida Thu and Fri ahead
of a cold front, which is forecast to move off Florida and into
the western Atlantic by early Fri. The front will reach from near
31N78W to Daytona Beach, FL early Fri and from 31N65W to Vero
Beach, FL early Sat before the portion W of 70W weakens.

$$
Hagen
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