[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181145
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between Atlantic
high pressure and lower pressures over W Africa will support
strong to near gale force north to northeast winds N of 28N and
within about 240 nm of the coast of W Africa. Winds locally
gusting to gale-force are expected in the far E part of this area
beginning at 18/1500 UTC. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected, except
building to 11-17 ft with winds that will be locally gusting to
gale-force. The local gusts to gale force are expected to diminish
to near gale force early on Wed, but seas will remain in the
11-17 ft range over the far E part. For more details, refer to the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at the website:
https://weather.gmdss.org/ll.html

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N17W to 02N22W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 03W and 10W, and from
00N to 05N between 42W and 51W. .

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong
return flow prevails over the NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the NW Gulf,
and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

The combination of light southerly winds and abundantly
available moisture may induce the formation of dense marine fog
within 20 nm of the coasts of central and NE Texas and SW
Louisiana this morning. Visibility may be restricted to below 1
nm, creating hazardous conditions for mariners.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S return flow will prevail in
the western Gulf ahead of a cold front that is forecast to enter
the western Gulf tonight. The front will extend from the Florida
Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu. Fresh N winds are likely
behind the front. Low pressure may form on the western edge of
the front in the western Gulf late this week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the central Caribbean as well
as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the central Caribbean
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south- central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia through
the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf
of Honduras into Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N51W to 22N60W and transitions
to a surface trough that extends south to the Leeward Islands near
17N62W. High pressure prevails elsewhere across the discussion
waters. Fresh to strong winds are noted off the coast of northern
Florida, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of
45W. Gentle to moderate winds are S of 20N and W of 35W, while
moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft
range N of 20N and E of 65W, with seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will weaken into a trough today. Seas N of 25N and E of 75W of 10
ft will diminish today. High pressure will build across the area,
and become centered between Puerto Rico and Bermuda into late
week. On the NW periphery of this ridge, fresh to locally strong
SW winds may occur at times offshore NE Florida.

$$
AL
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