[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130827
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING:

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche. A broad area of strong N winds will follow the front
through tonight. Gales will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico
today along with rough seas. Conditions will improve from W to E
Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING:

The cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico will enter the
Atlantic waters today. Winds will increase to gale- force ahead of
the front this weekend.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 03N29W. The ITCZ continues from 03N29W to 00N40W.
Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 10N between
05W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a gale warning over
the SW Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of
Campeche. Strong to near- gale force winds prevail west of the
front. Gentle to moderate winds are east of the front. Seas are in
the 7-10 ft range west of the front and 2-5 ft east of the front.

For the forecast, aside from the gales, high pressure will move
across the basin this weekend, with strong southerly return flow
developing in the NW Gulf early Sun. Winds will diminish Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are found in the south central Caribbean.
Moderate winds are over the north central and eastern Caribbean.
Light to gentle winds are in the western Caribbean. Seas are in
the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the
north central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds
will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of
Colombia Sun night through the middle of next week. A cold front
will reach the Yucatan Channel today followed by fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds. By early Sun this front will reach from
Hispaniola to offshore Nicaragua, then weaken to a shear line over
the NE Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on a gale warning
associated to a cold front over the western Atlantic this weekend.

A cold front extends from 31N47W to 21N70W. High pressure
prevails elsewhere. Fresh to strong winds are found off the coast
of northern Florida ahead of a cold front which will move off the
coast of Florida today. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N
of 20N and W of 35W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over
the discussion waters. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range N of 20N and W
of 35W, with seas in the 6-9 ft range elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move off NE Florida
this morning then track east across the area through the weekend.
Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will increase to gales N
of 28N this weekend. Strong winds are also expected behind the
front, with seas building to 12 to 15 ft.

$$
AL
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