[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jan 13 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO:

Gale-force winds are forecast in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico, in relation to a cold front that is moving through the
Gulf of Mexico now. The 12-hour forecast consists of the cold
front being along 29N82W 20N94W 18.5N94W. Expect NW to N gale-
force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet
from 19N to 21N between 95W and 96W...including within 60 nm
of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico.

GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN:

The 36-hour forecast consists of the cold front, that is
moving through the Gulf of Mexico now, to be along 31N68W
21N77W. Expect S gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging
from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 28N to 31N between 65W and 69W.

Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N20W 03N30W. The ITCZ continues from 03N30W, to
01N39W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from the line 10N14W 10N30W 05N50W southward.
Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from
10N southward from 60W eastward. High level moisture is being
pushed toward the NE and E, from 10N to 20N from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the coastal sections of Alabama
and Mississippi, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast
of Mexico near 21N97W. A squall line is within 90 nm to the east
of the cold front from 27N northward beyond the Florida
Panhandle.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 45 nm on either side of the line that runs from 25N90W
beyond 31N83W.

The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet to the
northwest of the cold front, from the Florida Big Bend to the
NE coast of Mexico. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet
to 3 feet elsewhere. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds
are to the northwest of the cold front from 90W westward, and
from 27N northward within 240 nm to the ESE of the cold front.
Gentle to moderate wind speeds are elsewhere.

A cold front is over the W Gulf. A broad area of strong
N winds will follow the front tonight through Fri night.
Gales will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Fri, along
with rough seas. Conditions will improve from W to E Sat.
High pressure will move across the basin this weekend,
with strong southerly return flow developing in the
NW Gulf early Sun. Winds will diminish Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1025 mb high
pressure center that is near 35N66W, to 27N74W, beyond the
Straits of Florida. Rainshowers are possible in areas of
broken to overcast multilayered clouds in the trade wind flow.

The sea heights have been ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from
13N southward between 74W and 80W, in the coastal waters of
Colombia and Panama. The sea heights are reaching 5 feet off
the SW coast of the Dominican Republic. The sea heights range
from 3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Gentle to moderate NE winds
are in the eastern one-third of the area, and from Jamaica
southward from 70W westward. Light breezes are elsewhere.

Fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds will pulse in the
south central Caribbean Sea, and near the coast of Colombia
tonight, then again Sun night through the middle of next week.
A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri followed by
fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. By early Sun this front
will reach from Hispaniola to offshore Nicaragua, then
weaken to a shear line over the NE Caribbean on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N48W to 23N59W, to 21N71W at
the SE Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is within 360 nm to the east of the cold front from
26N northward.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 20N northward
from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 6 feet to
9 feet. Strong NE winds are also from 10N to 28N between
23W and 36W. Strong winds also are from 04N to 11N between
39W and 53W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere.
The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in SE swell
from 20N northward from 50W westward. The exception is for
the sea heights to range from 5 feet to 6 feet between
50W and 55W.

A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb high pressure
center that is near 34N23W, through 32N33W, to 29N39W,
to 24N52W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from the cold front
eastward.

A cold front extending from near 31N50W to 23N62W will move
E of the area Fri. A stronger cold front will move off
NE Florida Fri morning then track east across the area through
the weekend. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will
increase to gales N of 28N this weekend. Strong winds are also
expected behind the front, with seas building to 12 to 15 ft.

$$
mt/al
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