[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone/Liberia
border, and extends southwestward to 01N21W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen south of Liberia from 01N to 03N between 08W
and 12W. An ITCZ continues from 01N21W through 02N35W to east of
Amapa State, Brazil at 04N47W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present near and up to 100 nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends southward from a 1023 mb high over
Mississippi to the south-central Gulf. Moderate NE winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft are seen at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to
gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through Thu morning, at which time a strong cold front is forecast
to emerge off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly return flow is
expected ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building
seas will follow the front forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and
rough seas are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with
fresh to strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will
diminish into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1027 mb high at the central Atlantic is channeling trade winds
across the entire basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen over the south-central and eastern
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trade winds are expected
across most of the basin through Wed as the high pressure weakens
and shifts eastward. Winds will increase to between moderate and
fresh over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba Wed
through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong NW to N winds will follow a cold
front moving into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri. This front
will reach from Hispaniola to the southwestern Caribbean by Sat
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across
31N69W and the central Bahamas to western Cuba. Widely scattered
showers are found near and up to 60 nm northwest of the front.
Convergent southerly winds east and southeast of the front are
causing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 23N between
62W and 70W. A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms
over the southeast Bahamas and Haiti. Another cold front reaches
southwestward from the Azores across 31N38W to 28N47W, then
continues as a dissipating stationary front to 25N58W. Patchy
showers are occurring up to 70 nm north, and 50 nm south of this
boundary. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh SE to SW to NW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are
evident near the first cold front north of 26N between 65W and the
Georgia/Florida coast. Gentle to locally moderate winds with 4 to
6 ft seas exist near and east of the second frontal boundary
north of 24N between the northwestern African coast and 65W.
Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to
9 ft dominate from 05N to 24N/26N between central African coast
and 65W/the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and 3
to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N62W to the southeastern Bahamas by Tue morning, and from 29N55W
to 21N70W by Tue evening. A reinforcing cold front will move into
the region Wed, merge with the aforementioned front, and then
stall and dissipate from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Thu.
Looking ahead, increasing winds and seas will accompany a strong
cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast early
Fri. Gale force winds may briefly occur ahead of the front on Fri,
while strong W to NW winds will occur behind the front that is
forecast to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by early Sat.
This front should reach from near 31N65W through 25N68W to
Hispaniola by late Sat night. Expect seas to build and peak near
12 ft, north and northeast of the Bahamas Sat and Sat night.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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