[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06.5N11W and extends southwest to 01N21W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N21W to 02S31W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the equator to 07N between 34W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western waters. High pressure
prevails elsewhere over the Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are
in the vicinity of the trough, with gentle to locally moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters
through Thu morning when a strong cold front is forecast to emerge
off the coast of Texas. Fresh southerly return flow is expected
ahead of the front. Strong northerly winds and building seas will
follow the front forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri. Winds to gale force and rough seas
are possible off Veracruz behind the front by Fri, with fresh to
strong northerly winds elsewhere. Winds and seas will diminish
into Sat as the front moves southeast of the area.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the central and
eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 1-2 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades are expected across
most the basin through Wed as the high pressure located N of the
area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will increase to moderate
to fresh speeds over the northwestern Caribbean and south of Cuba
Wed through late Thu as high pressure builds over the Gulf of
Mexico. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds will follow a cold front
that will move into the northwestern Caribbean late Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N72W across the central Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is in the
vicinity of the front N of 25N. Fresh to strong winds are both
ahead of and behind the front north of 28N. A second cold front
extends from 31N41W to 27N45W where it becomes stationary to
26N65W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the
waters north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh winds south of
20N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over the waters west of 35W, and
7-10 ft east of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from near 31N62W
to the SE Bahamas by Tue morning, and from 29N55W to 21N70W by Tue
evening. A reinforcing front will move into the region Wed, merge
with the previous front, and then stall and dissipate from 31N55W
to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Looking ahead, increasing winds and
waves will accompany a strong cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast early Fri. Gale force winds may briefly
occur ahead of the front on Fri while strong W to NW winds will
follow the front forecast to reach from near Bermuda to central
Cuba by early Sat.

$$
AL
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