[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060356
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center
Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to the equator at 45W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 05N,
between 27W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida near 26N82W to the Bay of
Campeche near 20N93W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
within 60 nm of the front. Behind the front, winds are moderate
to fresh from the NE with 4-6 ft seas. Ahead of the front, winds
are moderate with 2-4 ft seas. A 1025 mb high pressure has moved
over Louisiana. This feature is causing gentle winds in the
north central Gulf with slight seas.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from near Fort Myers,
Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche will exit the Gulf by
early Fri while weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
forecast in the wake of the front through Fri. Return flow
around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this
weekend, weakening Sun as the next front potentially moves into
the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions
are forecast early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the area
and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh trade
winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas are 5-
7 ft. In exposed Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles,
easterly winds are fresh to strong with 7-9 ft seas. A few
isolated showers are observed east of 72W. A localized area of
strong NE winds is noted offshore Colombia. The pressure
gradient is weaker in the NW Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will
continue to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast
through Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the
Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through tonight,
returning Sat night through Sun evening, as well as developing
in the lee of Cuba then. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh
trades will prevail through the weekend, locally strong in the
Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean Passages
through Fri. Elevated seas in the Tropical N Atlantic will
subside by the end of the weekend. A weak cold front will
approach the area on Fri and dissipate into the NW basin during
the weekend, diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds in
the western and central Caribbean early on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N76W to the coast of Florida near
27N80W. Showers are observed within 60 nm of the front. Moderate
SW winds are ahead of the front with moderate W winds behind.
Seas are 4-6 ft from 20N to 31N in the western Atlantic.
Otherwise, the main feature in the Atlantic is a 1030 mb high
centered near 32N50W. Winds are gentle near the high, gradually
increasing southward. South of 25N, fresh easterly winds
dominate with 6-10 ft seas. Moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas are
observed in the eastern Atlantic, where the pressure gradient is
weaker.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N
Atlantic waters will shift eastward as a cold front moves
through the waters off N Florida. The front will extend from
31N75W to the northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas early Sat, and exit the region Sun night.
Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N and ahead of the front and
NW winds behind the front will diminish on Fri. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 24N and E of the
Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the approaches
of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate seas in
the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in fresh NE
to E trade wind swell. Another pair of cold fronts may move off
N Florida early next week.

$$
Flynn
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