[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N45W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 16W
and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from south of Tampa Bay, Florida to the
central Gulf to the southern Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal trough
extends east of the front in the Bay of Campeche into the south-
central Gulf with thunderstorms along it. Another trough also
extends west of the front along the Mexico coast to Corpus Christi,
TX. Behind the front, N-NE moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted in the NE and central Gulf. Moderate NW winds are in the SW
Bay of Campeche. High pressure extends over the NW Gulf, where
light to gentle winds are noted. Light to gentle winds are also
noted ahead of the front in the southern Gulf. Seas are to 5 ft in
the central Gulf with 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will exit the Gulf by early Fri
while weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast in
the wake of the front through Fri. Return flow around high
pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend, weakening
Sun as the next front potentially moves into the northern Gulf
while weakening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast early
next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh
trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean. Seas range
4-6 ft. A trough also extends over the Mona Passage and into the
east-central basin with isolated thunderstorms within 60 nm of
it. Showers are also streaming over the Lesser Antilles into the
eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted in the NW basin
with no significant convection. Seas are to 4 ft in this area.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through
Sun night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola through tonight, returning Sat night
through Sun evening, as well as developing in the lee of Cuba
then. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail
through the weekend, locally strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and
through eastern Caribbean Passages through Fri. Elevated seas in
the Tropical N Atlantic will subside by the end of the weekend. A
weak cold front will approach the area on Fri and dissipate into
the NW basin during the weekend, diminishing winds to gentle to
moderate speeds in the western and central Caribbean early on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends off the Florida coast from 31N77W to
Melbourne, FL. Showers are noted within 60 nm of the front.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front with gentle to
locally moderate W winds behind it. Seas are to 7 ft, with the
highest seas N of 30N and E of 77W. Farther south, a trough
extends north of the Mona Passage to 22N67W. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted along this feature.

In the central Atlantic, a 1028 mb high pressure is centered near
31N51W and extends across most of the Atlantic waters. Light to
gentle winds are noted directly beneath the high pres. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the waters S of 27N
from the coast of Africa to the Turks and Caicos southward to the
Lesser Antilles. There are some areas with strong winds below
20N. Seas to 8 ft are noted east of the Lesser Antilles and north
of Puerto Rico, from 09N to 21N and E of 46W. Otherwise, seas
range 4-7 ft across most of the Atlantic with no significant
convection noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N Atlantic
waters will shift eastward as a cold front moves through the
waters off N Florida. The front will extend from 31N75W to the
northern Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
early Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Moderate to fresh SW
winds N of 29N and ahead of the front will diminish this evening.
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 24N and E of
the Bahamas through Fri, with locally strong winds in the
approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Moderate
seas in the SE waters will build slightly through Fri night in
fresh NE to E trade wind swell. Another pair of cold fronts may
move off N Florida early next week.

$$
AReinhart
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