[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of Cote d'Ivoire and
southern Liberia from 05N03W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
04N18W to 03N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 32W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to the central
Bay of Campeche. Except for moderate to fresh NW winds in the
north-central gulf in the wake of the front, a generally weak
pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to moderate
N to NE winds W of the front and light to getle variable winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the front will slowly shift east-southeast,
extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche this afternoon, and exit the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front.
Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate
this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially
moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil
conditions are forecast Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail across the Windward
Passage, and near the south coast of Dominican Republic, mainly
between Santo Domingo and Cabo Beata. Fresh trades prevail
elsewhere across much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate E winds are occurring over the NW corner of the basin
ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern and southwest Gulf
of Mexico. Seas are 6-8 ft over Colombia adjacent waters, and 5-7
ft elsewhere across the east and central portions of the basin.
Seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of
Cuba where seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
area N of Jamaica to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through
Mon night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola through late today, returning across the
Windward Passage Sat night through Sun night. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend, locally
strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean
Passages through Fri. A weak cold front will approach the area on
Fri and dissipate into the NW basin during the weekend, thus
diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds early on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 31N52W
dominate the western, central and eastern subtropical Atlantic
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface
trough moving across Puerto Rico is supporting the continuation of
fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 25N between 40W and
73W. Off the NE Florida coast, the pressure gradient between the
ridge and an approaching cold front supports fresh to locally
strong winds N of 29N and W of 73W. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft in the areas with strongest winds and
5-6 ft across the remainder subtropical waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging over the SW N
Atlantic waters will shift eastward today as a cold front moves
off N Florida. The front will extend from 31N74W to the northern
Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early
Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds
are expected to continue over the NE Florida offshore waters today
ahead of the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally
strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of
Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly
through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell.

$$
Ramos
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