[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jan 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of Cote d'Ivoire and
southern Liberia from 05N03W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
04N18W to 03N35W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 01N to 09N between 32W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend SW to the central
Bay of Campeche. Except for moderate to fresh NW winds in the
north-central gulf in the wake of the front, a generally weak
pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to moderate
N to NE winds W of the front and light to getle variable winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the front will slowly shift east-southeast,
extending from near Tampa Bay Florida to the eastern Bay of
Campeche this afternoon, and exit the Gulf by early Fri. Moderate
to locally fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front.
Return flow around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate
this weekend, weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially
moves into the northern Gulf while weakening. Fairly tranquil
conditions are forecast Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail across the Windward
Passage, and near the south coast of Dominican Republic, mainly
between Santo Domingo and Cabo Beata. Fresh trades prevail
elsewhere across much of the eastern and central Caribbean. Gentle
to moderate E winds are occurring over the NW corner of the basin
ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern and southwest Gulf
of Mexico. Seas are 6-8 ft over Colombia adjacent waters, and 5-7
ft elsewhere across the east and central portions of the basin.
Seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of
Cuba where seas are in the 1-3 ft range. Seas are 4-6 ft in the
area N of Jamaica to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast through
Mon night. Similar winds are forecast across the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola through late today, returning across the
Windward Passage Sat night through Sun night. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend, locally
strong in the Tropical N Atlantic and through eastern Caribbean
Passages through Fri. A weak cold front will approach the area on
Fri and dissipate into the NW basin during the weekend, thus
diminishing winds to gentle to moderate speeds early on Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A band of showers and thunderstorms, ahead of a cold front moving
across the NE Gulf of Mexico, is currently affecting northern
Florida and the waters off NE Florida, particularly N of Cape
Canaveral. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas 5-7 ft
prevail north of 29N and west of 77W. An upper-level low near the
Mona Passage is inducing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the waters S of 22N between 65W-71W. Mainly
fresh NE-E winds with seas of 6-8 ft are also noted in this area.
Multilayer clouds with possible shower are noted over the SE
Caribbean Caribbean and much of the Lesser Antilles. These clouds
extend eastward across the tropical Atlantic and are associated
with SW to W strong upper-level winds.

A 1030 mb high pressure is located E of Bermuda near 32N50W with
a ridge extending toward the Bahamas and South Florida. Light to
gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are near the ridge axis while fresh
trade winds prevail along the southern periphery of the ridge
especially S of 22N between 40W-65W, with seas of 5-8 ft. A
weakening cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W, and
continues SW to near 28N50W. Over the far E Atlantic, east of 35W,
moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft prevail under the
influence of another ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge that dominates the SW N
Atlantic waters will shift eastward as a cold front moves off NE
Florida Thu. The front will extend from 31N74W to the northern
Bahamas early Fri, from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early
Sat, and exit the region Sun night. Fresh to locally strong winds
are expected over the NE Florida offshore waters tonight and Thu
ahead of the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will
prevail S of 26N and E of the Bahamas through Fri, with locally
strong winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and N of
Hispaniola. Moderate seas in the SE waters will build slightly
through Fri night in fresh NE to E trade wind swell.

$$
Ramos
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