[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of southern Liberia near 05N08W and continues to 04N14W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N14W to 04N30W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-07N between 32W-51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0000 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana to a 1009
mb low pressure located near Brownsville, Texas then continues SW
to NE Mexico. Patches of dense fog are noted ahead of the front in
a moist southerly wind flow. A band of showers and thunderstorms
is also ahead of the front over the NW Gulf, and mainly N of 28N.
Moderate to fresh S winds and seas of 4-6 ft based on altimeter
data prevail E of the front, with the exception of 6-8 ft just
ahead on the front over the NW Gulf. Currently, gentle N winds and
seas to 6 ft are observed in the wake of the front.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly shift
east-southeast, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay
of Campeche by Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by early Fri.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will persist
through Wed before diminishing. Only moderate to locally fresh
winds are forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow around
high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend,
weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially moves into
the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data provide observations of fresh to strong
winds over the south-central Caribbean, including just off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted across
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere
across the east and central Caribbean while gentle to moderate
winds are seen over the NW Caribbean with the exception of moderate
to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are likely 6-8
ft across the south-central Caribbean, in the Windward Passage
and north of Jamaica, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of
Cuba where seas of 1-3 ft are noted.

An upper-level low spinning just N of Puerto Rico is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE
Caribbean, including the US/UK Virgin Islands and the Leeward
Islands. This shower activity is forecast to persist during the
overnight and into the early morning hours, as the aforementioned
low moves southwards over the region. Recent scatterometer data
indicate moderate to fresh NE winds over the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area will
support locally strong winds off the Colombian coast, across the
approach to the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through
Thu, as well as near the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the Caribbean and the
tropical N Atlantic through Wed night. A weak cold front will
approach the NW Caribbean by the end of the week, with winds ahead
of it in the western Caribbean diminishing Thu, then increasing
back to moderate to fresh thereafter. Seas will build through the
Yucatan Channel Fri night through Sat night in the wake of the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1027 mb located NE of Bermuda near 33N60W extends
a ridge across the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and the
State of Florida. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevail
across this region. Winds increase to moderate to fresh across the
southern periphery of the ridge, affecting mainly the waters S of
23N, including the Old Bahama Channel. Seas are generally 4-6 ft E
of the Bahamas based on altimeter data and buoy observations. A
cold front enters the forecast area near 31N48W and extends SW to
near 28N55W. A surface trough is analyzed along 41W/42W N of 25N.
Light winds prevail near the trough axis. The remainder of the
Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1034 mb high
pressure situated E of the Azores near 37N16W. An area of fresh to
strong trades is noted just N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about
23N based on scatterometer data. Seas area in the 8-9 ft range
within these winds according to an altimeter pass. Mainly fresh
winds are within the island water passages of the Cabo Verde and
the Canary Islands while fresh to strong NE winds are observed
across the waters S of the Madeira Islands to about 30N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface ridge will dominate the
region through Wed. Moderate or weaker winds north of 27N will
increase to fresh to strong offshore NE Florida Wed night ahead
of a cold front, while winds south of 27N will be moderate to
fresh, locally strong near the Windward Passage. The cold front
will move off NE Florida Thu night, then extend from Bermuda to
the central Bahamas by Sat morning, weakening as it reaches from
29N55W to 24N70W by Sun morning. Moderate to locally fresh winds
are forecast behind the front, diminishing by early Sat.

$$
GR
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