[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2320 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast
of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 05N13W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N13W to 04N30W to 01N49W. Scattered showers are noted along
and within 300 nm N of the ITCZ between 32W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Port Arthur, TX to 26N97W to NE Mexico
near 24N98W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from SW
Louisiana near 30N93W to 23N98W. Scattered showers and tstorms are
noted near the trough from 27.5N-30N between 91.5W-94W. Broken
clouds and possible isolated showers prevail over the central and
north-central Gulf. Fresh S winds are occurring over most of the
Gulf, east of the cold front, almost to the west coast of Florida.
Moderate N winds are occurring along the Texas coast, behind the
front. Seas are 4-8 ft across the Gulf, highest from 24N-29N
between 88W-95W. Dense marine fog is affecting northern Florida
waters from Apalachicola to the Florida Big Bend, extending out 60
nm from the coast. Marine fog will continue to be possible through Wed
morning offshore and near the coast from Louisiana to Florida. The
chance for fog should end after the cold front passes.

A cold front and pre-frontal trough in the NW Gulf will slowly
shift east-southeast, reaching from the Big Bend of Florida to the
Bay of Campeche by Thu morning, and exiting the Gulf by early
Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front will
persist through Wed before diminishing. Only moderate to locally
fresh winds are forecast in the wake of the front. Return flow
around high pressure over the SE U.S. will dominate this weekend,
weakening by Sun night as the next front potentially moves into
the NW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mid-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean Sea, leading to
subsidence and relatively dry air. A trough near the far NE basin
is providing some showers for the northern Leeward Islands and
Virgin Islands. Fresh trade winds prevail across the central
Caribbean, while moderate trades are in the eastern Caribbean.
Fresh trades are also likely occurring in the Windward Passage and
north of Honduras. Moderate SE winds prevail across the NW
Caribbean. Seas are likely 5-7 ft across the central Caribbean,
5-6 ft in the Windward Passage and north of Jamaica, and 3-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, a surface ridge building north of the area will
support strong winds off the Colombian coast, across the approach
to the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu, as
well as in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Otherwise, fresh trades
will prevail across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic
through Wed night. A weak cold front will approach the NW
Caribbean by the end of the week, with winds ahead of it in the
western Caribbean diminishing Thu, then increasing back to
moderate to fresh thereafter. Seas will build through the Yucatan
Channel Fri night through Sat night in the wake of the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda, with ridging
spreading across the western Atlantic. A surface trough extends
from the Virgin Islands northeastward to 30N52W. Scattered showers
and tstorms are noted from 18N-22N between 60W-65W. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds extend from the Windward Passage to north of
Puerto Rico, and northward to 25N between 60W-70W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere W of 60W and north of 24N.
West of 60W, seas are as high as 6 ft north of Puerto Rico to 24N,
and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Farther east, weak high pressure ridging generally prevails from
24N-31N between 35W-55W, where seas are 4-6 ft. To the south,
moderate to fresh trade winds prevail along with seas to 7 ft,
from 10N-20N between 40W-60W. Between Africa and 30W, winds are
fresh NE to E and seas are 6-8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough extending from
27N55W to the Virgin Islands will dissipate tonight. Otherwise,
surface ridging will dominate through Wed. Moderate or weaker
winds north of 27N will increase to fresh to strong offshore N
Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front, while winds south of 27N
will be moderate to fresh, locally strong near the Windward
Passage. The cold front will move off N Florida Thu afternoon,
then extend from Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Fri night,
weakening as it reaches from 31N55W to 25N70W by Sun morning.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast behind the front,
diminishing by early Sat.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net