[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210420
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in
Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue to
maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night
and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale to gale force NE
winds within 100 nm of NW Colombia. This weather pattern is
expected to continue through the rest of the week. Seas are
forecast to build to near 14 ft with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 06N18W to 01N28W to 02N40W to 00N49W. Isolated to
scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east
of 42W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The subtropical ridge remains positioned over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions across the
basin. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-4 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, a 1020 mb high pressure center located near 26N85W
will shift to well E of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds will develop across the western half of the Gulf
on Tue, then strengthen to strong to near gale-force Tue night and
Wed over the NW and north-central Gulf, ahead of a frontal system
that will stall across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow
is expected across most of the basin Thu, then over the western
section and also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night
through Fri night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north
of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in NW South America
continue to support fresh to strong easterly breezes across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force
winds are found in the south-central Caribbean and winds to gale
speeds off NW Colombia, as detailed in the Special Features
section. Outside of the Gale Warning area, seas are 6-10 ft in
the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and
seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 27N will help
sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high
pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to
gale-force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward
Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE
winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Tue night and
spread to the Yucatan Channel through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An expansive ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters,
suppressing the development of deep convection. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are occurring off NE Florida, especially north of
29N and west of 78W. This was confirmed by the latest satellite
wind data. Seas in these waters are 4-5 ft. Moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent west of 60W. Farther east,
a surface trough extends from 31N44W to 17N44W. No deep convection
near this feature. The broad ridge supports moderate to locally
fresh NE-E winds between 35W and 60W. Seas in the waters described
are 5-8 ft.

The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb high pressure system south
of the Azores and lower pressures in west Africa sustain fresh to
strong N-NE winds south of 23N and east of 30W. Seas in these
waters are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, an E to W high pressure ridge axis
along 26N will weaken through Tue night, then reorganize NE of
the Bahamas Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds across the northern
waters should continue through early Wed as a frontal system
sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end of that
front will sink into the NE waters late Wed, and reach along 22N
late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to freshen NE to
E trade winds south of 24N during this period.

$$
DELGADO
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