[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure well NE of the area and relatively lower pressure
in Colombia and in the far south-central Caribbean will continue
to maintain strong to near-gale force NE to E trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia during the daytime
hours. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the late night
and early morning hours just offshore NW Colombia. This weather
pattern is expected to continue through the rest of the week.
Seas are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N10W and continues westward to near 01N32W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N32W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from the equator to 04N between 16N and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high pressure system located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico near 26N86W dominates the basin, suppressing the development
of convection. Light to gentle winds are observed under the influence
of this system, with the exception of gentle to moderate southerly
winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are generally in the 1 to 3 ft range
except 3 to 4 ft over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the above mentioned high pressure will shift
southeastward to the southeastern Gulf tonight, then to well E
of the Gulf by Wed. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will develop
across the western half of the Gulf on Tue, then strengthen to
strong to near gale-force Tue night and Wed over the NW and
north-central Gulf, ahead of a frontal system that will stall
across Texas. High pressure and fresh return flow is expected
across most of the basin Thu, then over the western section and
also over the central section S of 26N from Thu night through Fri
night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the Special Features section, for details about the
ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning.

Latest scatterometer data provided observations of strong to near
gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean, near the
coast of Colombia with fresh to strong trades over the remainder
of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
noted elsewhere over the eastern and NW Caribbean, including
also the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the central
Caribbean based on altimeter data, 5 to 7 ft over the eastern
part of the basin, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, with 4 to 6 ft in the
Windward Passage and between eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Patches
of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are moving
across the area producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure ridge along 27N will help
sustain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean
through Wed, then become strong Wed night through Fri as high
pressure reorganizes NE of the Bahamas. Winds will pulse to gale-
force off the coast of Colombia at night through the period.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will also occur in the Windward
Passage and lee of Cuba Wed through Fri night. Fresh to strong SE
winds will develop across the Gulf of Honduras Tue night and
spread to the Yucatan Channel through Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge dominates the western Atlantic. A frontal trough extends
from 31N50W to 27N63W. An ASCAT pass reveals moderate to fresh
NE winds north of the trough. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft
due to a long- period NW to N swell. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 30N41W to 17N47W. Mainly moderate winds prevail on
either side of this second trough with seas of 6 to 8 ft. The
eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure situated
S of the Azores near 35N27W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from
13N to 22N between 20W and 25W. these winds are affecting the
Cabo Verde Islands where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are also noted between the Lesser
Antilles and across the waters NE of the Leeward Islands,
particularly from 16N to 20N between 57W and 63W. Abundant multi-
layer clouds with possible showers are seen N of 10N between the
W coast of Africa and 35W. Isolated thunderstorms are near
19N30W based on Lightning data.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will reorganize NE of
the Bahamas on Wed. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected
across the northern waters tonight through early Wed as a frontal
system sweeps eastward across the NW Atlantic. The western end
of that front will sink into the NE waters late Wed, and reach
along 22N late Thu. High pressure behind the front will act to
freshen NE to E trade winds south of 24N during this period.

$$
GR
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