[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062218
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Feb 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE WARNING:

The pressure gradient between the western Atlantic Ocean high and
lower pressure over Central and South America will continue to
support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south-central
Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia through late week. Seas
will range from 9 to 11 ft. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
the Offshore Waters Forecasts, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

Atlantic Ocean GALE WARNING:

A strengthening low pressure centered NW of Bermuda is moving NE
away from the region. A trailing cold front extends S from the low
to 31N68W and continues to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 180 nm E and SE of this front. Gale
force winds are now confined to areas N of 31N, but near gale-
force SW winds are noted ahead of the cold front, N of 28N and W
of 56W. Seas in this region of strong winds are 9 to 11 ft. Behind
the front and N of 28N, strong NW winds are ongoing, with similar
sea heights. extending W to around 75W. As the low pressure
continues to move away from the area and the cold front weakens,
winds and seas will gradually diminish tonight. Please, read the
latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SEAS:

A broad area of 12 to 15 ft seas are ongoing N of 20N between 35W
and 55W, due to NW swell of 12 to 15 seconds. These seas will
gradually decay through Tue night, with seas by late Tue falling
below 12 ft. Fresh to strong trades in this area of higher seas
will also decrease to moderate to fresh by late Tue. Please, read
the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, then continues to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from
03N19W to 00N23W to 00N31W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
S of 08N and E of 31W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure centered over the SE U.S. is moving NE away
from the Gulf of Mexico this evening. A surface trough has
developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 29N86W to 24N85W.
Winds are generally gentle to moderate out of the E and SE,
although fresh SE return flow is ongoing in the NW basin. Seas are
2 to 4 ft, with localized seas of up to 5 ft in the Florida
Straits, and 4 to 6 ft offshore the Texas coast.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf of
Mexico will move eastward over the next few days. Southerly
return flow will increase to fresh to locally strong tonight into
early Tue over the western Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the
remainder of the Gulf Tue. Strong winds will also develop off NW
Cuba and the NW Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front
will enter the western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds likely
behind it over the far west-central Gulf, and quickly diminishing
as the front reaches the central Gulf early Thu, before stalling
and weakening. A stronger cold front will enter the Gulf Thu
evening, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz Fri morning,
and exit the basin to the southeast by early Sat. Gale force NW to
N winds are possible behind the front over the SW Gulf Fri into
Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
GALE WARNING that is in effect for the coastal waters of
Colombia.

A weak surface trough extends from southern Cuba to the SW
Caribbean, but relatively dry are and subsidence is precluding
significant convection near the trough or elsewhere in the basin.
Mainly fresh trades dominate most of the basin, although the
south-central basin is experiencing strong NE to E winds, and
trades are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 8 to
11 ft in the south-central and SW basin in association with the
zone of strong winds, otherwise seas are 2 to 4 ft in the NW
Caribbean and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
maintain a strong pressure gradient across the central Caribbean
Sea through the week. Strong easterly winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force off Colombia
nightly through late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft
during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward
Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late
this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will
also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the eastern
Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Fri night, with fresh to
strong N winds coming into the NW Caribbean behind the front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
the gale warning ending SW of Bermuda and the hazardous seas
occurring SE of Bermuda.

The stationary front that had been SE of Bermuda has dissipated
today, leaving high pressure centered near the Azores the dominant
weather feature for most of the basin. There is however a cold
front extending from 31N68W through the central Bahamas. The winds
N of 28N in association with this front, as well as related
convection, are described in the Special Features section above. S
of 28N, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are present behind the
front, with generally gentle to moderate S winds ahead of it to
about 55W. E of 55W, fresh to strong trades dominate, with seas of
10 to 15 ft. No significant convection is occurring in the basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will sweep across the
Atlantic over the next couple of days, reaching from near 27N55W
to the SE Bahamas Wed morning. Strong wind speeds will continue
north of 28N on both sides of the front through Tue night. Large
swell will build in Wed behind the front and spread southward
across the basin through late week. Fresh to strong trade winds
are expected through the Bahamas, Straits of Florida and Windward
Passage late Tue through Thu night. Looking ahead a cold front
will move east of Florida Fri night with strong winds on both
sides of the front.

$$
KONARIK
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