[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the western
Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge, and the comparatively lower
surface pressures that are in Colombia and Panama, will continue
to support pulsing nighttime gale-force winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, each night
through late this week. The sea heights are forecast to range
from 9 feet to 11 feet in the areas of the comparatively-fastest
wind speeds. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

Atlantic Ocean GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING:

A 994 mb low pressure center is near 34N71W. A cold front
extends from the 994 mb low pressure center, through 31N71W, to
27N73W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is within 240 nm
to the east and southeast of the cold front.
Gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 11 feet to
13 feet, are from 29N to 31N between 67W and 72W. Moderate to
fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that runs from the
coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near gale-force NE
winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W. Strong NE winds
cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from 50W eastward.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward from 26W
eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between 50W and
60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been covering the
Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the approaching
cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been elsewhere from
60W westward away from the front. The sea heights of 8 feet and
higher are reaching the coastal waters of South America between
40W and 60W. The sea heights of 8 feet and higher also are
nearly everywhere from 20N northward from 60W westward, away
from the Bahamas. The sea heights of 4 feet or lower are in the
Bahamas. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

Atlantic Ocean SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT:

The SW Atlantic Ocean stationary front has dissipated. Large and
long-period swell has been covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N
northward between 40W and 60W. The comparatively highest sea
heights that have been ranging from 14 feet to 17 feet have been
near 30N between 40W and 46W. The sea heights are 18 feet and
higher from 31N northward. The swell direction is N to NW, with
a period that has been ranging from 12 seconds to 16 seconds.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the north of the line that
runs from the coast of Africa at 20N, to 22N31W to 24N50W. Near
gale-force NE winds are from 12N to 21N between 29W and 50W.
Strong NE winds cover the areas that are from 06N to 26N from
50W eastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N northward
from 26W eastward. Fresh to strong easterly winds are between
50W and 60W. Strong to near gale-force SE winds have been
covering the Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 60W to the
approaching cold front. Fresh to strong SE winds have been
elsewhere from 60W westward away from the front. Please, read
the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, curving to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W,
to crossing the Equator along 22W, to 01S25W and 01S31W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to
the south of the line 08N at the coast of Africa, to 07N26W 05N41W
05N52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near
21N97W in the coastal plains of Mexico. The sea heights have
been ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern half of the
area, and they have been ranging from 2 feet to 4 feet in the
western half of the area. Gentle to moderate winds have been in
the western half of the area. Gentle winds or slower have been
in the eastern half of the area.

High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will move eastward
during the next few days. Southerly return flow will increase to
fresh to locally strong tonight into early Tue in the western
Gulf, with fresh winds spreading to the remainder of the Gulf
Tue. Strong winds also will develop off NW Cuba and the NW
Yucatan Tue night into early Wed. A cold front will enter the
western Gulf on Wed with strong N winds possible behind it off S
Texas and Mexico, and quickly diminishing as the front reaches
the central Gulf early Thu. A stronger cold front will enter the
Gulf late Thu into Fri with near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING that has been issued for the coastal
waters of Colombia.

Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, covering the much of the  Caribbean Sea. The exception
is in the SE corner of the area.

A surface trough curves from northern Colombia, through 14N80W,
through NW Cuba, and into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either
side of the trough.

Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are in the Atlantic Ocean,
to the east of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands. Those same
winds have been in the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea,
and in the northern half of the central one-third of the
Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are in the
southern half of the central one-third of the area. Moderate to
fresh NE winds have been in the southern two-thirds of the
western one-third of the area. The sea heights have been ranging
from 7 feet to 10 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and in
parts of the SW corner. The sea heights have been ranging from 6
feet to 8 feet in the eastern one-third of the area, and from 2
feet to 4 feet in the western one-third of the area.

The subtropical ridge north of the area will maintain a strong
pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea through the
week. Strong easterly winds will continue in the south central
Caribbean, Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia nightly into
late this week. Seas will build to near 13 ft
during the strongest winds. Winds will increase in the Windward
Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras late Tue through late
this week, pulsing to strong at night. Strong easterly winds will
also pulse off southern Hispaniola and occasionally in the
eastern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING and the ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT.

A stationary front is along 31N45W to 30N52W. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the
stationary front. A 1041 mb high pressure center is near 40N43W.

The rest of the information about the Atlantic Ocean is in the
SPECIAL FEATURES section.

Rapidly strengthening 994 mb low pressure near 34N71W is moving
NE away from the area. A cold front extends from the low to
31N71W to 28N72W to Andros Island, Bahamas. Gale-force S to SW
winds are present N 29N and within 180 nm E of the cold front.
As the low pres moves farther away, gale force winds will end E
of the front late this afternoon or early this evening. The cold
front will sweep across the Atlantic over the next couple of
days, reaching from near 27N55W to the SE Bahamas Wed morning.
Strong wind speeds will continue north of 28N on both sides of
the
front through Tue night. Large swell will build in Wed behind
the front and spread southward across the basin through late
week.

$$
mt/ah
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