[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge north of Puerto Rico and lower pressures in
Panama and NW Colombia remains high. This will sustain nighttime
gale-force winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, near the
coast of Colombia through Sunday night. Seas are forecast to peak
at 9 to 11 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra
Leone just south of Freetown, then reaches southwestward to
01N25W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
flaring up south of the trough from 02N to 05N between the Liberia
coast and 14W. An ITCZ then continues from 01N25W through 00N35W
to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm
north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Florida
Straits across the Yucatan Channel to over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Patchy rain are seen up to 80 nm along either side of the front.
A surface trough is generating scattered showers across the
southwest and west-central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche

Fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
exist near the front across the south-central and southeastern
Gulf. Fresh with locally strong northerly winds and seas at 6 to 9
ft are seen near the trough at the west-central and southwestern
Gulf. A 1034 mb high over the Gulf States is supporting gentle to
moderate E winds at the northwestern Gulf, and moderate to fresh
ENE winds for the rest of the Gulf. Seas across the northern Gulf
range from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, as the stationary front gradually weakens, winds
across the west-central and southern Gulf will gradually diminish
from NW to SE this afternoon and tonight. Afterward, the high
pressure will build into the basin, and sustain fresh to locally
strong SE to S return flow across the western Gulf on Mon night
and Tue, ahead of a cold front entering the northwest Gulf Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers near
Puerto Rico, the Virgin and Leeward Islands, and also the ABC
Islands. Otherwise, the sub-tropical ridge is prolonging a trade-
wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are found at the south-central basin, just
north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with 6 to 8 ft
seas are present at the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate
ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are found at the northwestern
basin. Moderate ENE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south-central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia
tonight and Sun night, with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Looking ahead,
gales are possible again off Colombia Tue night as high pressure
builds north of the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N60W and the central Bahamas to the Florida Straits.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along
and up to 110 nm northwest of this features. Convergent trade
winds are producing similar conditions near the coast of French
Guiana, and Amapa State in Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale force NE to ENE winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are seen behind the cold front between 60W and
the Georgia- Florida coast. Fresh southerly winds with 7 to 9 ft
seas are evident ahead of the front north of 27N between 48W and
the cold front. To the east, the surface ridge is supporting light
to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 20N between 30W and
48W. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades
and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist north of 22N between the northwest
African coast and 30W. Further south, moderate to fresh NNE to ENE
trades with 5 to 8 ft seas are present from 05N to 20N/22N
between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to
gentle trades and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft in northerly
swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall tonight from
29N55W to Cuba tonight, then weaken as it lifts northward as a
warm front Sun into Sun night. It will be replaced by another
cold front that moves offshore northeastern Florida Sun night
into Mon. This second cold front will stall Tue night from 29N55W
to the Windward Passage.

$$

Forecaster Chan
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