[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Feb 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical
ridge north of the basin and lower pressures in NW Colombia and
Panama will support pulsing minimal gale-force winds in the south
central Caribbean Sea, near the coast of Colombia, through the
remainder of this morning and possible again tonight. Seas are
forecast to peak near 12 ft off northwest Colombia. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for
more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra
Leone/Liberia border near 07N11W to 02N17W. The ITCZ extends from
02N17W to 00N50W. No significant convection is evident.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite passes show
fresh to strong winds and rough seas over all but the far
northwest Gulf, with near-gale force winds over the Bay of
Campeche. The winds and seas follow a front that is currently
moving through the eastern Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel.
No significant showers or thunderstorms are evident across the
basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish from west to east
across the Gulf today, as high pressure builds over the area
behind the front. Looking ahead, expect fresh to locally strong SE
to S return flow across the western Gulf on Mon and Tue, ahead of
another cold front entering the northwest Gulf Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for more details
about the Gale Warning off NW Colombia.

A cold front is moving into the Yucatan Channel, followed by fresh
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas as noted by a ship
observations off the western tip Cuba. Winds may be reaching gale
force off Colombia as well with fresh to strong winds and rough
seas over the south-central Caribbean. No significant showers or
thunderstorms are evident.

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the
south- central Caribbean Sea, pulsing to gale force off Colombia tonight,
with fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Looking ahead, gales are possible
again off Colombia by mid week as high pressure builds north of
the region.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front continues to move eastward in the western Atlantic,
extending from 31N61W to the Straits of Florida. No deep
convection is noted near the frontal boundary. Fresh to near gale-
force northerly winds are present behind the cold front, as
depicted by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these
waters are 7-10 ft with the highest seas near 29N75W. Fresh to
strong SW winds are found ahead of the frontal boundary, mainly
north of 29N and west of 55W.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally
strong easterly trade winds, mainly south of 20N and 6 to 9 ft
seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall from 29N55W to
northwest Cuba tonight, then will weaken while it lifts north as
a warm front through Sun ahead of another front expected to move
off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. The second cold front
will reach from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon,
then start to stall from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late Tue.

$$
Christensen
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