[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N17W to 02N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 13W and 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to dominate the basin, anchored by a
1023 mb high pressure centered near 26N85W. To the east of 92W,
light to gentle winds prevail with 2 to 3 ft seas. West of 94W,
moderate to fresh SSE to S return flow is occurring, with 2 to 4
ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico weather will slide E and weaken early this week,
allowing a cold front to move into the NW basin Mon. Moderate to
fresh return flow will prevail over the far W Gulf tonight ahead
of the cold front. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle
to near the coast of NE Mexico Mon night, then stall from central
Florida to the NW Gulf Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds will follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front is
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Wed. This front will extend from the
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move SE
of the basin Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front in
the northern and western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti near 18N73W to NE Nicaragua
near 14N83W. Cloudiness containing possible isolated light
showers is noted along and within 330 nm NW of the front. Fresh
to strong NE winds persist within 180 nm northwest of the front,
including in the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this
area, which extends from the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica
to the Nicaragua/Honduras border. Elsewhere NW of the front over
the NW Caribbean, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. To
the SE of the front in the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh
ENE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail, except within 60 nm
offshore Colombia, where fresh to strong winds are noted. East of
68W, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 3 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate into Mon.
Fresh to strong winds behind the front, including in the Windward
Passage, will diminish Mon morning. High pressure building north
of the front will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia at
night through Wed night. A cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel Thu but weaken as it enters the extreme NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from 31N53W to central Hispaniola near
20N70W where the boundary becomes stationary and is beginning to
weaken. A reinforcing cold front is located about 60 nm west of
the leading cold front boundary. Moderate to fresh NW winds are
behind the second cold front, north of 29N and east of 62W.
Moderate to fresh E winds are noted south of 24N between 65W and
75W, including the Windward and the Mona passage entrances. Sea of
6 to 9 ft are north of 22N and between 54W and 72W. High pressure
behind the boundary dominates the remainder of the area with
light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas.

Farther east, weakening 1016 mb low pressure is located in the
central Atlantic near 26N41W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7
ft seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front from near 31N54W to
the Dominican Republic will slide E of the area by Tue, while
gradually dissipating from S to N. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds
and rough seas to 9 ft will prevail over the waters N of 28N and
E of 70W into tonight. Another cold front is forecast to move off
the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, then through the western
part of the area by late Tue. Strong winds and building seas are
expected on either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night
when the front will move E of the area. A third cold front is
forecast to move off the Florida coast Thu, extending from Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Thu night, then from near 31N55W to
central Cuba Fri night.

$$
Mora
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