[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 312252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N09.5W to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 210 nm either side of the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1023 mb high pressure is centered near 24N88W, and 1024 mb high
pressure is centered over the Florida Peninsula near Lake
Okeechobee. To the east of 92W, light to gentle winds prevail with
2 to 3 ft seas. West of 94W, moderate to fresh SSE to S return
flow is occurring, with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure that has been dominating Gulf of
Mexico weather will slide E through tonight, allowing a cold front
to move into the NW basin Mon. Moderate to fresh return flow will
continue over the far W Gulf tonight ahead of the cold front. The
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near the coast of
NE Mexico Mon night, then stall from central Florida to the NW
Gulf Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in
behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf early Wed, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay
of Campeche Wed night, then move SE of the basin by midday Thu.
Fresh to strong winds will follow the front across the Gulf of
Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from Haiti near 18N73W to NE Nicaragua
near 14N83W. Cloudiness containing possible isolated light showers
is noted along and within 330 nm NW of the front. Fresh to strong
NE winds persist within 180 nm northwest of the front, including
in the Windward Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in this area, which
extends from the Windward Passage to south of Jamaica to the
Nicaragua/Honduras border. Elsewhere NW of the front over the NW
Caribbean, fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. To the SE
of the front in the central Caribbean, moderate to fresh ENE
trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. East of 68W, NE winds are
gentle to moderate with 3 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate into Mon.
Fresh to strong winds behind the front, including in the Windward
Passage, will diminish Mon morning. High pressure building north
of the front will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia at
night through Wed night. A cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel Thu but weaken as it enters the extreme NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to central Hispaniola near
20N70.5W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 20N to 23N between
70W and 75W, including the approaches to the Windward Passage.
Within the Windward Passage, NE winds are strong with 6-9 ft seas.
Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 7-10 ft are north of 29N
between the front and 72W. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered
near Lake Okeechobee, FL. Farther east, weakening 1014 mb low
pressure is located in the central Atlantic near 24N41W. Gentle to
moderate winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of
the Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from near
31N55W to central Hispaniola will move slowly southeastward until
it dissipates by Tue. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough
seas to 10 ft will prevail over the waters N of 28N and E of 75W
into tonight. Another cold front is forecast to move off the NE
Florida coast Mon night, and extend from near Bermuda to the
eastern tip of Cuba Tue evening, before moving east of 55W by Wed
evening. Strong to near-gale force winds and building seas are
expected on either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night
when the front will move E of the area. High pressure will briefly
build in the wake of the front. A third cold front is forecast to
move off the Florida coast by early Thu morning, extending from
Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Thu night.

$$
Hagen
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