[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310545
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Africa
close to 06N along the Prime Meridian, through southern Liberia,
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues along 04N15W 04N21W 03N29W 01N33W
01N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 06N southward from 23W eastward. Isolated moderate
to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1022 mb
high pressure center is near 24N96W. Mostly moderate to some fresh
anticyclonic wind flow abounds. Moderate seas are from 90W
eastward, and in the SW corner. Slight seas are elsewhere.

High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. The area of high
pressure will move eastward this weekend, enabling a cold front to
move into the NW Gulf Mon. Moderate to fresh return flow will
develop over the far W gulf on Sun ahead of the cold front. The
front will reach from northern Florida to near the coast of NE
Mexico by Mon evening, then stall from central Florida to the NW
Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in
behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf Tue night and extend from northern Florida to the Bay of
Campeche Wed night, then move SE of the basin Thu. Fresh to strong
winds will follow the front over the western Gulf, with fresh
winds following the front over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the western sections of Haiti, to
the eastern tip of Jamaica, to western Honduras. Rough seas are
from Honduras to 20N from Jamaica westward. Moderate seas are in
the rest of the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea., and in the
coastal waters of Colombia. Slight seas are in the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Near gale-force northerly winds are within 180 nm
to the north of the cold front between 80W and 86W. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are in the rest of the area that is from
the cold front northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from the
Mona Passage to the border of Costa Rica and Panama.

Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the central one-third of the
area. Moderate NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
Moderate seas are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Slight seas
are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area.

A cold front extending from the Hispaniola to eastern Honduras
will stall from Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Sun, where it will
gradually dissipate through Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and
moderate to rough seas will be found in the NW Caribbean through
late Sun. High pressure building north of the front will support
fresh to strong winds off Colombia Sun through Wed night. Moderate
to fresh trades are forecast Thu and Thu night for the central
and eastern Caribbean waters.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 25N41W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N to 25N between
36W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere
within 150 nm on either side of the line 17N42W 24N38W 31N32W. An
east-to-west oriented frontal boundary is from 31N northward from
40W eastward. Rough seas are from 21N northward between 32W and
40W. Fresh southerly winds are in the precipitation from 22N to
28N between 35W and 40W. Fresh easterly winds are from 15N to 23N
between 32W and 35W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE and N winds
are from 20N to 30N within 540 nm of the 1012 mb low pressure
center in the W semicircle.

A cold front passes through 31N59W 26N64W, beyond the western
sections of Haiti, and beyond eastern Jamaica. Fresh to strong
westerly winds are from 28N northward from 70W westward. Strong to
near gale-force northerly winds are moving through the Windward
Passage. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 23N southward
between 70W and 77W. Rough seas are from 28N northward from 70W
westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from the cold front
northwestward. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N northward
between 50W and 60W.

Fresh NE winds are from 03N to 07N between 40W and 47W.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 19N to 21N between 22W and
25W. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the Atlantic
Ocean. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extends from 31N59W SW to Hispaniola and into the NW
Caribbean. The front will reach from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola
Sun then stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon where
it will dissipate through Tue. Strong winds over the NW waters
will prevail tonight, with moderate to fresh W to NW winds and
rough seas to 9 ft affecting these waters through late Sun.
Another cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast
Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late
Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on
either side of this front N of 27N through Wed night when the
front will move E of the area. A third cold front is forecast to
move off the Florida coast Thu, extending from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas Thu night.

$$
mt/al
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