[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302316
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 05N04W to 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N20W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is
from the equator to 06N east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to build across the Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1028 mb high centered in the west-central Gulf of
Mexico near 23N93.5W. In the western Gulf, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds prevail with 2 to 4 ft seas, except for 4 to 6
ft in the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. In the E Gulf, moderate
to fresh NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the high pressure will progress eastward to the
eastern Gulf on Sun. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds will develop
along the far W Gulf on Sun ahead of the next cold front forecast
to move into the northern Gulf of Mexico Mon morning. The front
will reach from Tampa Bay, FL to Brownsville, TX early Tue, then
stall from Cape Coral, Florida to the NW Gulf by late Tue.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will follow in behind this front.
Looking ahead, a stronger cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Gulf Tue night and extend from Cedar Key, Florida to the Bay of
Campeche Wed night with strong N winds behind it. This front is
forecast to exit the basin Thu afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to the
western tip of Jamaica to the N coast of Honduras near 16N86W.
Scattered showers are within 180 nm either side of the front.
Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds are occurring within 210
nm NW of the front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in this area, between the
Cayman Islands and Belize, with highest seas in the Gulf of
Honduras. Elsewhere NW of the cold front, seas are likely in the 5
to 7 ft range. In the Windward Passage, fresh to locally strong
NE winds and seas to 6 ft are likely occurring. In the central and
eastern Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with seas
ranging from 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will continue to support strong
to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas in the NW Caribbean
within 210 nm NW of the front through Sun morning. Strong NE winds
are expected in the Windward Passage this evening through Sun
night. The front will stall Sun evening from Haiti to the mid-
Nicaragua coast near 13N83.5W. Afterward, the front will start to
weaken before dissipating Mon morning. High pressure building
north of the front will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia
Sun through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the Windward Passage.
Scattered showers are along the front and west of the front over
the western Atlantic. Fresh to strong W winds are likely occurring
north of 28N between 70W and 80W, with moderate to fresh W to NW
winds elsewhere west of the front and north of 26N. Seas are 8 to
11 ft north of 27N between 66W and 78W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere
north of 25N between 55W and 80W.

Farther east, a 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 25N42W.
Scattered thunderstorms are seen on the east side of the low from
21N to 28N between 35W and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds surround
the low from 20N to 31N between 35W and 50W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft
in this area. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5
to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong winds west of the cold front
extending from 31N61W to the Windward Passage will continue to
affect the offshore waters N of 27N through tonight. However,
moderate to fresh W to NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft will
continue to affect these same waters through late Sun as the front
reaches from 30N55W to Hispaniola near 20N72W. The front will
stall from near 27N55W to 20N72W Mon and dissipate through Tue.
Another cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Mon night
and reach from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Tue night. Fresh to
strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of
this front N of 27N through Wed night, when the front will move E
of 55W. Looking ahead, yet another cold front is forecast to come
off the coast of Florida by Thu morning and extend from Bermuda
to the central Bahamas Thu night.

$$
Hagen
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