[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A surface trough is along 31N30W 23N40W 14N52W. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to
the east and to the southeast of the of the surface trough from
18N northward. Rough seas are from 25N northward between 36W and
50W. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds are from 29N
northward between 30W and 36W. Fresh to strong NE winds are to the
north of the line 25N50W 26N43W 27N36W 31N30W. Fresh to strong S
and SW winds are to the east of the surface trough from 26N
northward between 28W and the surface trough. The 42-hour forecast
consists of a surface trough along 29N35W 26N43W 28N55W. Expect
gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet,
from 27N to 29N between 39W and 45W. Expect strong to near gale-
force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 35W
and 57W. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast, that is issued
by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the SE corner of Ghana, 03N10W,
and 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, to 03N30W and 03N47W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 08N southward between 20W and 50W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge is in the northern parts of the Gulf of Mexico,
in the U.S.A. coastal plains between the Florida Panhandle and the
Texas/Louisiana border. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas,
span the entire area. Broken to overcast middle level and upper
level clouds are to the northwest of the line 18N95W 21N92W, to
the Florida Keys. Rainshowers are possible in the area of the
cloudiness.

High pressure is building across the north-central Gulf this
evening following a cold front that passed through the Gulf
earlier today. The high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a
cold front that will move off the Texas coast late Wed. The front
will move southeast of the basin through Thu night through early
Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas.
Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across
the Gulf in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough cuts across NW Cuba from 23N81W, to 20N85W, to NW
Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 17N northward from the Windward Passage westward. Slight
seas, and mostly gentle winds, are everywhere from 80W westward.

Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level
clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere from 16N northward
from 75W eastward, and from 15N southward.

Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are
within 210 nm of the coast of Colombia. Moderate or slower winds,
and slight seas, are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse within 60 nm of the
coast of Colombia overnight. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail
elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
Channel Thu night into Fri morning, and reach from the eastern
Cuba to central Honduras by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds are
expected behind the front over the western Caribbean Fri night
through Sun, along with fresh to strong NE winds over the Windward
Passage Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
42-hour forecast for gale-force winds.

A cold front extends from a 31N80W 1011 mb low pressure center,
to 27N79W, 23N81W at the coast of Cuba. Mostly moderate to some
rough seas are from 25N northward between 65W and 74W. Moderate
seas, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds, are elsewhere from 65W
westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 22N northward from 62W westward.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 30N62W 26N60W 20N55W.
Mostly fresh to some strong surface anticyclonic wind flow is
within 330 nm to the east of the surface trough from 22N
northward. Rough seas are from 26N northward between 50W and 65W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 20N northward between 45W and 62W.

Moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front reaches from 1011 mb low pressure off northeast
Florida to western Cuba. The front will weaken as it lifts to the
northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second reinforcing front
expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night. That
front will reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Fri
night, from 31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, and from 29N55W to the
Mona Passage by late Sun.

$$
mt/ec
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