[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262256
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A surface trough extends from a
1009 mb low pressure system positioned near 32N32W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 22N
and east of the surface trough to 21W. A tight gradient between
the trough and a 1027 mb high pressure system in the north
Atlantic supports fresh to strong NE winds north of 25N and
between 25W and 60W. Seas of 12-14 ft are found north of 26N and
between 32W and 45W. Sea of 8-12 ft are occurring north of 22N and
between 27W and 62W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and large seas
will persist north of 22N and east of 55W through Wed as the
trough continues to drift south and east. Looking ahead, an upper
level disturbance moving into the region will support the
development of a surface low along the trough by late Thu near
23N43W. Winds may reach gale force again by late Fri north of the
low pressure as the low deepens. For more information, please
refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W
to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N02W to 02N25W to 04N40W. A
surface trough is analyzed along 43W, from 01N to 08N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N and between 27W and
47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from SW Florida to western Cuba. No deep
convection is seen near this boundary. Mid to upper level moisture
is streaming across the western and central Gulf of Mexico,
supporting a few showers. A weak high pressure over the
Mississippi Valley supports moderate or weaker winds and seas of
2-4 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will drift to the
southeast of the Gulf through Wed. High pressure will build in
the wake of the front today and tonight, then shift east ahead of
the next front that is expected to move off the Texas coast Wed.
The next front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico by early Thu afternoon, with fresh to locally
strong winds possible off Veracruz by then. A reinforcing shot of
cold air will allow fresh to locally strong NW winds and rough
seas over the central and eastern Gulf Thu night and Fri as the
front shifts to the southeast of the area. Winds and seas will
diminish across the basin Sat and Sat night as 1023 mb high
pressure moves over the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Dry air across the Caribbean Sea is suppressing the development of
deep convection. Strong high pressure north of the islands
sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. The strongest winds
and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse within 60 nm
of the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate or weaker winds will
prevail elsewhere through Thu. A stationary front over the Yucatan
Channel will enter the NW Caribbean Thu morning and weaken later
that day. A reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel
Fri morning, and reach from the eastern tip of Cuba to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds
are expected behind the front over the NW Caribbean Fri night
through Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Atlantic Significant Swell Event.

A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pres near 30N80W to
central Florida. A few showers are seen east of the low pres. The
pressure gradient between the low pres and a 1027 mb high pres
centered in the north Atlantic support fresh to strong southerly
winds north of 26N and west of 76W. Seas in these waters are 7-11
ft. Outside of the system described in the Special Features
section, broad ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will
persist off northeast Florida through tonight ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near 31N74W to Miami,
Florida Wed night, and from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu night.
This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing
front that emerges off the coast of northeast Florida Thu night.
The combined front will extend from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba
early Sat morning, and from 31N60W to the N coast of Haiti by Sat
night. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will support fresh to
strong W to NW winds and rough seas north 27N Fri through Sat
night.

$$
Delgado
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net