[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure
near 32N35W to the northeast of Barbados. A tight gradient between
the trough and 1030 mb high pressure farther north is supporting
near-gale to gale force NE winds just west of the trough, north of
28N. Seas are 10 to 12 ft currently in this area. Winds will
diminish below gale force by afternoon as the low shifts farther
to the northeast and the trough shifts eastward, but combined
seas will continue to build as large NE swell moves into the area.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds and large seas will persist north
of 22N and east of 55W through Wed as the trough continues to
drift south and east. Looking ahead, an upper level disturbance
moving into the region will support the development of a surface
low along the trough by late Thu near 23N43W. Winds may reach gale
force again by late Fri north of the low pressure as the low
deepens. For more information, please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near 06N00W to
03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 03N20W to 05N35W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N between
38W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida to near
Merida, Mexico. Moderate northerly winds follow the front, with 3
to 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight seas
are noted east of the front. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident.

For the forecast, high pressure will build in the wake of the
front today and tonight, then shift east ahead of the next front
that is expected to move off the Texas coast Wed night. The next
front will reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz,
Mexico by late Thu, with fresh to strong winds possible off
Veracruz by then. Looking ahead, a reinforcing shot of cold air
may allow fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the central
and eastern Gulf Fri as the front shifts to the southeast of the
area. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Sat and Sat
night as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak trough extends from eastern Honduras to northern Belize.
A small area of fresh to strong trade winds and 5 to 7 ft are
pulsing off Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena,
Elsewhere, moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted,
except for light to gentle breezes and slight seas over the
northwest Caribbean. No significant shower or thunderstorm
activity is evident.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at
night near the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate or weaker winds
will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel Wed night and weaken Thu over the NW Caribbean. A
reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night,
stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by the end of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the
Atlantic Ocean gale warning.

Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas are ongoing off northeast
Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, between 1012 mb low
pressure over southern Georgia and high pressure farther to the
northeast. South of this ridge, and beyond the gale force winds
and very rough seas described in the Special Features section,
there is a large area of moderate to fresh NE to E 8 to 10 ft
swell mainly north of 23N west of the trough to 60W. Moderate
winds and seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N and west of the
trough. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident
within 300 nm east of the trough. For the remainder of the north
Atlantic south of 31W, moderate winds and seas persist, except for
light to gentle breezes over the deep tropics south of 20N between
40W and 60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will
persist off northeast Florida through late today ahead of a cold
front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast tonight, and reach from near 31N75W to
South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu
night. This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger
reinforcing front that emerges off the coast of northeast Florida
Thu evening. Looking ahead, the combined front will extend from
near Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Fri night, and from 31N60W to
the Dominican Republic by Sat night. Reinforcing cold air behind
the front will support fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough
seas north 27N Sat and Sat night.

$$
Christensen
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