[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A first surface trough extends from a 1008 mb 31N37W low pressure
center, to 27N40W 20N50W 18N54W. A second surface trough is about
240 nm to the northwest of the first surface trough from 25N
northward. Expect imminent gale-force N to NE winds, and sea
heights that will range from 12 feet to 14 feet in NW to N swell,
from 29N to 31N between 37W and 40W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 100 nm to 300 nm
to the east and to the southeast of the first surface trough. The
24-hour forecast consists of wind speeds less than gale-force, and
sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet in N to NE swell,
from 20N to 31N between 35W and 61W. Please, read the High Seas
Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Liberia to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W, to 03N16W
03N21W 04N30W 05N38W. A surface trough is along 42W/44W, from 06N
southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
from 08N southward from 45W eastward. Broken to overcast high
level clouds are from 17N southward between 43W and 60W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is in the Florida Panhandle. A warm
front curves away from the 1011 mb low pressure center, to the
eastern part of central Florida. A stationary front continues from
the 1011 mb low pressure center, to the south central Gulf, and to
the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is about 180 nm
to the west and to the northwest of the stationary front. High
level clouds are curving through the Gulf of Mexico in an
anticyclonic sense. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
possible rain, cover mostly the western half of the area. Similar
clouds and precipitation are scattered to broken in coverage.

Moderate seas cover the area from the central sections northward
and toward the northeast. Slight seas cover the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. Moderate or slower winds are in the area.

A 1011 mb low pres is centered over the western Florida Panhandle
with a warm front extending SE from the low to over north
Florida, and a stationary front extending SW from the low to the
Bay of Campeche. A secondary cold front has entered the NW Gulf,
extending from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico. Moderate N winds prevail
behind the second front. The cold fronts will combine by Tue
morning and extend from northern Florida to Tuxpan, Mexico, then
weaken and slowly move southeast of the Gulf late Wed. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then shift east
ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the northwest Gulf
late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front over the
northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through early Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is along the line from the northern sections of
Nicaragua, through eastern Honduras, to the NW corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from Jamaica northward from Jamaica westward.

Fresh to moderate NE-to-E winds are in the central one-third of
the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are in the southern half of the
central one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 26/0000 UTC, are: 0.43 in Curacao, according to the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN.

Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night near the coast
of Colombia through Tue night. Moderate or weaker winds will
prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will reach the Yucatan
Channel Wed night and weaken Thu over the NW Caribbean. A
reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night,
stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by the end of the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
imminent Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning.

A surface ridge runs from Bermuda toward Puerto Rico. A second
surface ridge is along 15N30W 27N25W beyond 31N20W.

Rough seas are to the north of the line that passes through
31N35W 24N49W 23N56W 27N66W beyond 31N70W. Mostly moderate to
some rough seas are from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 70W westward.
Slight seas are to the east of the line that passes through
31N26W 26N22W 21N20W 15N19W, to the Equator along 15W/16W.
Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong to near
gale-force SE winds are from 27N northward from 77W westward.
Strong NE winds are from 28N northward between the second Atlantic
Ocean surface trough, from the SPECIAL FEATURES section and 52W.
Fresh southerly winds are from 23N northward between 30W and 40W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 29N northward between 60W and
63W. Moderate and fresh winds cover much of the rest of the
Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida
through late Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west.
The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early
Wed, and reach reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night,
from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. This front will
quickly be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing front that emerges
off the coast of NE Florida Thu evening. The combined front will
extend from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Fri night. W to NW
winds will increase off northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as
the reinforcing front moves off the coast. Large NE to E swell
will persist across the region mainly north of 22N and east of 65W
through mid week.

$$/
mt/ec
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