[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning:
Tight gradient between a 1008 mb low pressure over southern
Louisiana and a 1030 mb high pressure off the northeast U.S. is
sustaining near-gale SE winds with frequent gusts to gale force
across the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to near New
Orleans, LA. Seas in these area range from 11 to 13 ft. As the
low and its related warm front lift farther northward early Monday
morning, these winds will decrease. Please visit the National
Weather Service website at www.weather.gov for more details.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic across 31N42W to northeast of the Leeward Islands near
21N59W. A low pressure is expected to form along this front near
29N44W on Monday morning. As this low deepens while moves east-
northeastward, NE winds northwest and north of this low will reach
near-gale to gale force early Tuesday morning. Combined seas under
the strongest winds will build and peak at 12 to 16 ft north 27N
between 40W and 50W. As the low tracks east-northeastward through
Tuesday afternoon, these gales and rough seas will also shift
eastward. Conditions should begin to improve Tuesday evening as
the low gradually weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. An ITCZ
extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 02N11W across
04N30W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to
90 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above on an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A warm front extends southeastward from a 1008 mb low over
southern Louisiana to the east-central Gulf. A cold front also
curves southwestward from this same low to north of Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with
gusty winds are occurring near the warm front but east of the
cold front, north of 24N between 84W and 92W. Outside the Gale
Warning area, fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft
are present across the northeastern and east-central Gulf.
Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found at
the southeastern and central Gulf, including the Florida Straits.
Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, expect strong to near-gale force winds
and rough to very rough seas into the overnight hours over the
northeast Gulf north of the warm front as it moves north of the
area, diminishing early Mon morning. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will move ahead of the cold front over the north-
central Gulf tonight. The cold front will reach from Louisiana to
Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from northern Florida to Veracruz,
Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent winds east of a surface trough over the Gulf of
Honduras are causing scattered showers near the Cayman Islands.
Otherwise, a trade-wind regime continues across the entire basin.
Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident at the
south-central basin north of northwest Colombia. Moderate to fresh
ENE to ESE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are seen at the north-
central basin, near the Windward Passage and on the Lee of Cuba.
Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail
for the rest of the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off
Colombia through Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the
western basin will diminish early this week. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail over the eastern basin. A cold front may reach
the Yucatan Channel by late Wed, stalling from Cuba to Honduras
by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern
Atlantic across 31N42W to northeast of the Leeward Islands near
21N59W. A pre-frontal trough in the vicinity runs southwestward
from 30N41W across 21N50W to east of the Lesser Antilles at
17N56W. Scattered moderate convection exist near these features
north of 16N between 39W and 56W. A surface trough stretches
northward from 26N64W to beyond 31N at 67W. Scattered moderate
convection is flaring up east of this feature, north of 25N
between 56W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are noted north
of 29N between 44W and 45W. Fresh with locally strong ESE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are present east of Florida, north of 25N to
near 78W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with seas
at 5 to 7 ft dominate north of 21N between the stationary front
and Florida east coast. East of the stationary front near the
Canary Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to SE t S winds and seas
of 4 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell are found north of 20N
between the northwest Africa coast and the stationary front/50W.
For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 21N/20N between the central
Africa coast and Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed swells exist. light to gentle
southeasterly winds with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and
large NE to E swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the
middle of the week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and
mid-Atlantic states and broad low pressure develops east of the
area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
early Wed. The front will reach from near 31N75W to South Florida
Wed night, from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night, and from
near Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri night.

$$

Chan
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