[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242239
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A warm front is approaching the NE
Gulf, currently extending from 30N94W to 27N89W. A Gale Warning
has been issued by the local weather forecast offices over the NE
gulf waters N of 27N between 85W to 89W for frequent gusts to 40
kt beginning at 2000 UTC today thru Mon morning. For more
details, please refer to www.weather.gov

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches from 31N44W to
1012 mb low pressure near 20N64W. The low pressure will deepen
as a moves to the northeast along the weakening front, reaching
near 28N42W as a 1009 mb low by early Tue. As a result, winds
will increase to minimal gale force on the north side of the low
by late Mon into early Tue, between the low pressure and strong
high pressure farther north. Combined seas will build to as high
as 15 to 18 ft north 28N between 40W and 46W by early Tue. Winds
will diminish through late Tue while the low pressure moves
farther to the northeast. Combined seas will subside more
gradually with 8 to 12 ft wave heights persisting north of 26N
and east of 43W through late Wed in NE swell.

For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ
extends westward from 02N11W across 02N32W to 04N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident within 01N to 06N between 26W and
46W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in
effect for the NE gulf waters.

Pressure gradient between a strong high pressure centered east of
New England and a complex low and cold front approaching from
the west over the southern Plains and northern Mexico is
producing SE fresh to strong winds over the north-central Gulf
with seas to 9 ft. A warm front extends from 30N94W to 27N89W.
Fresh southwesterly flow prevails across the northwestern Gulf
behind the front, while strong SE winds prevail E of the front.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 25N and E of 94W. Seas
of 8 to 10 ft are expected E of the front. Seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the NE Gulf will
increase to near gale force tonight before diminishing Monday. The
warm front will shift N of the area tonight while cold front
moves off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf. The cold front
will reach from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from
northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move
southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh mainly easterly winds are found over the NW
Caribbean with seas 4 to 6 ft. In addition, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are depicted south of Jamaica. Fresh to strong winds
are also pulsing off Colombia with seas 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off
Colombia through Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds in the
western Caribbean will diminish early this week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold
front may reach the Yucatan Channel by late Wed, stalling from
Cuba to Honduras by the end of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
developing Gale Warning in the central Atlantic.

A stationary front reaches from 31N44W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 20N64W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N41W to
17N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 60
nm of the front/trough N of 22N between 40W and 58W. Recent
scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds NW of
the front, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 28N
west of the front to 60W. Altimeter data depict wave heights of 8
to 11 ft west of the front over open waters, largely due to NE to
E swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
persist.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and large N to NE
swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the middle of the
week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic
states and broad low pressure develops east of the area. A cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed. The
front will reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from
near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night, and from near 31N59W to E
Cuba Fri night.

$$
ERA
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