[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Dec 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches from 31N45W to
1013 mb low pressure near 20N64W. The low pressure will deepen as
a moves to the northeast along the weakening front, reaching near
28N42W as a 1009 mb low by early Tue. As a result, winds will
increase to minimal gale force on the north side of the low by
late Mon into early Tue, between the low pressure and strong high
pressure farther north. Combined seas will build to as high as 15
to 17 ft from 28N to 30N between 50W and 55W by early Tue. Winds
will diminish through late Tue while the low pressure moves
farther to the northeast. Combined seas will subside more
gradually with 8 to 12 ft wave heights persisting north of 20N and
east of 65W through late Wed in NE swell.

For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ
extends westward from 02N12W across 03N35W to 05N45W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident within 04N to 06N between 27W and
33W, and from 04N to 06N between 50W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A scatterometer satellite pass from 03Z showed winds increasing
over the eastern Gulf, south of strong high pressure centered off
New England and a complex low and cold front approaching from west
over the southern Plains and northern Mexico. A concurrent
altimeter pass showed combined seas building to near 8 ft over the
southeast Gulf as well. Buoy and platform data over the north-
central Gulf indicated fresh to strong SE winds and building seas.
Warm, southerly flow across the northwestern Gulf is indicative of
a developing warm front over the region, supporting clusters of
showers mainly to the north of the front over the north-central
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted
elsewhere across the Gulf.

For the forecast, winds may reach near-gale tonight over the
northeast Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft, while the cold front
moves off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf. The front will
reach from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from northern
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of
the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent ship observations indicate fresh to locally strong winds
northwest of Grand Cayman Island, on the northern end of a surface
trough reaching south of Grand Cayman to near 15N80W. Fresh to
strong winds are also pulsing off Colombia. Gentle to moderate
trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds
and large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the
middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and
mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure develops east of the
area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
early Wed, reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and
from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
developing gale warning in the central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central
Atlantic to 30N45W, then continues to a 1013 mb low just
northeast of the Virgin Islands at 20N64W. A broad upper trough
extends over the region north of 20N between 40W and 70W, and is
supporting several areas of convection. Scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm of the front between 50W
and 60W, and from 18N to 21N between 50W and 55W east of a surface
trough. A few showers and thunderstorms are also near 30N68W and
25N68W, near surface troughs. Recent buoy and scatterometer
satellite data indicate moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted
west of the front, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds north
of 28N west of the front to 60W. Buoys and altimeter satellite
data also show wave heights of 8 to 11 ft west of the front over
open waters, largely due to NE to E swell. Farther east, gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas persist.

For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and
large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 24N into the
middle of next week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas and
mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure develops east of the
area. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by
early Wed, reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and
from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night.

$$
Christensen
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