[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Africa monsoon trough remains over the continent. An ITCZ
extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 02N13W across 03N30W
to north of Amapa State, Brazil at 04N46W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident up to 80 nm along either
side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface runs southwestward from near New Orleans to southeast of
the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen at the northwestern Gulf, while thick
cirrus are present over the central Gulf. A surface ridge extends
southwestward from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh
to strong E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft exist across the
central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to
moderate SE winds and 3 ro 5 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas across the north-
central and northeastern Gulf will increase tonight between high
pressure over the Carolinas and a complex low and cold front
moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. A warm
front has developed ahead of the low and move northward across
the northwest Gulf through Sun. Winds may reach near-gale Sun
night over the northeastern Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft.
A cold front will move off the Texas coast into the northwest
Gulf Sun night, reaching from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early
Mon, then from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue,
and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection near
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern
continues to dominate much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin, just
offshore from northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE to E
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the north-central and
northwestern basin, including the Lee of Cuba and Windward
Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off
Colombia through Mon night. Moderate to locally fresh winds in
the western basin will diminish early next week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold
front may reach the Yucatan Channel the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
to 30N46W, then continues as a stationary front to a 1015 mb low
just northeast of the Virgin Islands at 20N64W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen up to 40 nm northwest, and 90 nm
southeast of this boundary. A pre-frontal trough is causing
similar convection farther east north of 22N between 40W and 46W.
A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
east of the Lesser Antilles from 13N to 20N between 53W and 58W.
Two troughs of low pressure embedded within the northeasterly flow
are causing scattered moderate convection east of the Bahamas,
north of 21N between 65W and 72W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additiona convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are
present behind the stationary/cold front, north of 21N and west to
the Bahamas/Florida coast. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands,
gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from
07N to 31N between the Africa coast and stationary front/60W. For
the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 21N between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to E winds with seas of 6 to 8
ft in mixed swell are present. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front is expected to dissipate
later tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and
large N to NE swell will persist mainly north of 22N through early
Sun, and north of 24N into the middle of next week as high
pressure builds over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states, and
broad low pressure develops east of the area. A cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast the middle of next week and
reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and from near
31N70W to central Cuba Thu night.

$$

Chan
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