[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181115
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front extends from 984 mb low pressure located along the
North Carolina coast to 24N75W to central Cuba along 77W. A warm
front extends from the low to near 23N66W. A tight pressure
gradient between a ridge extending SW from strong high pressure of
1046 mb near 43N50W and the area of low pressure is supporting
gale-force winds over the western Atlantic waters, on both the E
and W of the cold front. Seas in this area are up to 20 ft along
30-31N. A large area of 12 ft seas has been generated by this
system, with seas greater than 12 ft over the waters N of 23N and
W of 65W. The low will track quickly northeastward along the
Atlantic coast today, with gale force winds lifting N of the area
by Tue morning. The area of 12 ft seas will shift eastward,
merging with another area of large swell generated from gales over
the central Atlantic.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
Strong high pressure will continue to build over the north central
Atlantic. This will continue to tighten the pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and a stationary front
extending from 31N36W to 20N60W. This will support gale force
winds over the discussion waters N of 25N between 40W and 52W
today. Seas of 12 to 16 ft currently over these waters will build
to near 20 ft by this evening, with seas greater than 12 ft
spreading southward and westward, merging with the area of 12 ft
seas generated from the gale force winds over the western Atlantic
waters through the middle of the week. The strong high pressure
will shift further NE and away from the area, loosening the
pressure gradient across the central Atlantic waters diminishing
winds below gale force Tue evening.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then extends
westward to near 08N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N17W
to 07N25W to 03N35W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 20W and the coast of
Africa, and from 01N to 09N between 20W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above about an ongoing
Gale Warning.

1019 mb high pressure is centered across southern Texas. The
pressure gradient between this high and the cold front across the
western Atlantic is producing fresh NW to N winds over the
eastern Gulf, where seas are 7 to 11 ft, and highest in the
Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail W of 90W,
where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Fair skies prevail across the entire
basin.

For the forecast, the strong low pressure that was affecting the
Gulf region is now along the E coast of the U.S., with the
associated cold front moving SE across the western Caribbean.
Fresh NW to N winds continue across the eastern Gulf and will
gradually diminish today. High pressure will dominate the weather
pattern across the Gulf waters through Tue, then strengthen N of
the region Wed through Thu to produce fresh to strong NE to E
winds across the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba along 77.5W to SE Nicaragua.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail W of front to 10N, where
seas have built to 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are E of
72W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft, highest to 8 ft in NE swell across
the NE Caribbean Passages. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and reach from the
E coast of Cuba to NE Costa Rica Mon evening, and from central
Hispaniola to 10N80W Wed evening before dissipating across the
Caribbean. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 9 ft are
expected in the wake of the front through Wed. High pressure will
build SE across the western Atlantic Wed night through Fri to
produce fresh to strong NE winds across much of the Caribbean
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more on the Storm
and Gale Warnings.

A stationary front extends southwestward from near 31N36W to
20N60W, then continues as a warm front to the 984 mb low center
along the east coast. A cold front extends from that low through
central Cuba then into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is N of 20N within 180 nm E of the cold
front, and from 18N to 30N between 40W and 46W. 1046 mb high
pressure centered across the NW Atlantic is creating a strong
pressure gradient N of the stationary front, and producing a very
large area of strong to gale-force winds N of this stationary front
to the cold front along about 72W. High seas of 10 to 16 ft prevail
there.

Outside of this areas, fresh to locally strong winds are found N
of 18N and E of 42W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere S of 18N across the tropical Atlantic,
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a western Atlantic cold front extends
through 31N73W to 24N75W to eastern Cuba along 77W. Gales ahead
of the front will persist through Tue while gales behind the
front are expected to move N of the area this morning. The front
is expected to reach from 31N69W to the E coast of Cuba by Mon
evening, from 31N61W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 19N70W by
Wed evening, and from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by Thu evening.
Strong high pressure will build into the western Atlantic behind
the front Tue night through early Thu to produce fresh to strong
winds.

$$
Stripling
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