[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180522 RRA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Dec 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front extends from 988 mb low pressure located
along the South Carolina coast to 25N76W to central Cuba near
21N78W. A warm front extends from the low to near 23N66W. A
tight pressure gradient between a ridge extending SW from strong
high pressure of 1046 mb near 43N51W and the area of low
pressure is supporting gale force winds over the western
Atlantic waters. Seas in this area are up to 20 ft. A large area
of 12 ft seas has been generated by this system, with seas
greater than 12 ft over the waters N of 23N and W of 66W. The
low will rapidly track further northeastward along the Atlantic
coast tonight, with gale force winds shifting N of the area by
Tue morning. The area of 12 ft seas will shift eastward, merging
with another area of large swell generated from gales over the
central Atlantic.

Central Atlantic Gale Warning:
Strong high pressure will continue to build over the north
central Atlantic. This will continue to tighten the pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface
trough, which will support gale force winds over the discussion
waters N of 26N between 42W and 55W tonight. Seas will build
over these waters, with seas greater than 12 ft spreading
southward and westward, merging with the area of 12 ft seas
generated from the gale force winds over the western Atlantic
waters through the middle of the week. The area of high pressure
will shift further from the area, loosening the pressure
gradient across the central Atlantic waters diminishing winds
below gale force Tue.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters
Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details
on both Gale Warnings.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then extends
westward to near 08N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N17W
to 07N25W to 03N35W to 05N44.5W. Scattered moderate convection
is Depicted from 01N to 09N between 18W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above about an ongoing
Gale Warning.

A dissipating cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to
the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail
over the eastern Gulf in association with the pressure gradient
between the strong low pressure located in the coast of South
Carolina and the pressures in the area. While, high pressure
over the western Gulf is supporting NW gentle to moderate winds
over the area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail E of 90W. Seas of 8 to
10 ft are between 88W and 91W, and seas of 4 to 8 ft are W of
91W.

For the forecast, the strong low pressure that was affecting the
Gulf region is now along the coast of South Carolina, with the
associated cold front moving SE across the western Caribbean.
Fresh to strong NW to N winds continue across the eastern Gulf
and will gradually diminish through Mon. High pressure will be
in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through
mid-week, before strengthening high pressure N of the region
will bring fresh to strong NE winds across the eastern Gulf,
including the Straits of Florida.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to NW Nicaragua. NW fresh
to strong winds prevail W of 80W. E moderate to fresh winds are
E of 75.5W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the
6 to 10 ft range W of 81W, reaching 11 ft in the Yucatan
channel. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front is moving SE across the western
Caribbean, extending from central Cuba to the far NE coast of
Nicaragua. Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front. The front
will reach from eastern Cuba to 10N80W Mon afternoon, and from
Hispaniola near 20N70W to 10N79W Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas to 9 ft are expected in the wake of the
front. Strong high pressure over the Atlantic will continue to
produce fresh to locally strong winds over the NE Caribbean
through tonight before diminishing.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for more on the Storm
and Gale Warnings.

A stationary front extends southwestward from a 1020 mb low
outside of our area near 35N33W to north of Puerto Rico, then
continues as a warm front to a 988 mb storm center near
33N78.5W. A cold front extends from that low to central Cuba
then into the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is N of 20N between 38W and 49W. Similar
convection is depicted ahead of the cold front N of 21.5N
between 70.5W and 76W.

Outside of the warning areas, NE to E fresh to strong winds
prevail N of 20N and W of 50W as well as N of 13N between 56W
and the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to locally strong winds are found
N of 19N and E of 29W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Outside of the area of 12 ft seas, seas of 8 to 11 ft
prevail N of 20N and W of 50W, N of 13N between 56W and the
Lesser Antilles, as well as N of 19N and E of 29W. Elsewhere,
seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from 988 mb low
pressure located along the South Carolina coast to 25N76W to
central Cuba near 21N78W. SE to S gale-force winds are ahead of
the front N of 26N and E of front to 68W. Behind the front, NW
gales are N of 28.5N tonight. Scattered strong thunderstorms
continue along and ahead of the cold front. The front is
expected to reach from 31N69W to eastern Cuba by Mon afternoon,
and from 31N68W to the N coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W by Tue
afternoon. The front will then move slowly E into the middle of
the week as high pressure builds behind it. Gales ahead of the
front will persist through Mon night while gale behind the front
are expected through early Mon morning.

$$
KRV
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