[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Dec 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning
and Significant Swell in the Atlantic Ocean...

A stationary front passes through 31N32W, to 30N35W 28N40W, to a
1012 mb low pressure center that is near 25N44W. The stationary
front continues from the low pressure center to 19N51W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
within 640 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is within 600 nm of the center in the
SE quadrant. Rough to very rough seas are from 19N northward
between 35W and 60W. Rough seas are from 26N southward between 60W
and 70W impacting Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands; and from
09N to 20N between 40W and 60W. Gale-force winds are 250 nm to
the NNE of the 1012 mb low pressure center. Strong to near gale-
force winds are elsewhere from 21N northward between 34W and 55W.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...Western Atlantic Ocean and Florida Offshore Waters
Gale-Force Wind Warning...

A stationary front passes through 31N68W, to 30N70W 26N75W, across
Andros Island in the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida,
along the coast of NW Cuba, through the Yucatan Channel, to the
coastal waters of the SE Yucatan Peninsula/NE Belize.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, are to the west of the line
that passes through 31N54W to 20N70W. Near gale-force NE winds are
from the stationary front northwestward in the Atlantic Ocean.
Strong NE winds are from 25N southward between 70W and 78W; and
from 15N to 25N between 55W and 65W.

...Gale-Force Winds in the Gulf of Mexico...

Expect frequent gusts to gale-force in the Gulf of Mexico, from
27N northward from 90W eastward, during the morning hours of
Thursday. These conditions will continue through Thursday night,
and they will end by Friday night/possibly Saturday morning.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane
Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 05N09W, to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W, to 05N22W,
to 04N46W. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along
44W/45W from 05N to 13N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 15N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for the gusts to gale-
force, from 27N northward from 90W eastward, from Thursday morning
until Friday night.

The western Atlantic Ocean stationary front, that is the subject
of one of the paragraphs of the SPECIAL FEATURES section, passes
through the Straits of Florida, and through the Yucatan Channel,
to the coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. An
upper level trough is along 77W/80W from 30N southward to Panama.
An upper level trough also is in parts of Texas and Mexico.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong, span the Gulf of Mexico.

Strong to near gale-force NE winds are from 91W eastward. Moderate
to fresh winds are in the rest of the area. Rough seas are from
92W eastward. Moderate seas cover the rest of the area.

Strong high pressure building across the eastern United States
will support fresh to strong winds over the eastern Gulf. The
areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will increase to the
NW Gulf by early Thursday. A large area of near gale to gale force
winds will develop over the north central and east sections of
the basin Thu through Fri. Low pressure will develop N of the
Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat and then track northeastward
across central Florida Sat night into Sun morning. A cold front
will move into the western Gulf Sat, with strong to near gale
force winds and rough seas. The front will merge with the area of
low pressure by Sat night and exit the basin Sun morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front passes through 31N68W, to 30N70W 26N75W, across
Andros Island in the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida,
along the coast of NW Cuba, through the Yucatan Channel, to the
coastal waters of the SE Yucatan Peninsula/NE Belize. A surface
trough is along 12N81W, to the coastal waters of NE Nicaragua/
eastern Honduras, beyond Belize, toward the northern parts of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from the
Windward Passage westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 18N
northward from 80W westward. Strong NE winds are in the central
one-third of the area. Fresh to strong NE winds are in the eastern
one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
elsewhere, from 80W westward. Rough seas cover the areas that are
from Puerto Rico southwestward. Moderate seas cover the rest of
the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough passes through 10N75W in Colombia, beyond
southern Panama. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 14N southward from 73W westward.

Strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong
trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean during the
overnight tonight, before gradually diminishing. Fresh to strong
NE winds in the Windward Passage will diminish Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warnings, and the Significant North Swell.

Expect: moderate seas, and moderate to fresh winds, throughout
the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A stationary front extending from near 31N68W to the central
Bahamas and to western Cuba is forecast to lift northward toward
the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida Thu. The combination of
strong high pressure building north of the area and the front will
result in near gale to gale force northeast to east winds and
building seas over the waters W of 74W and north of 26N through
Fri, with these winds spreading north-northeastward to the north-
central forecast waters Mon and Mon night. An area of low pressure
is forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and
into the Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area of gale force
winds is possible east of the low. Widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected over most of the western half of the
area through the weekend.

$$
mt/ja
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