[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A newly developed 1010 mb low is
centered along a stationary front near 23N44W. Near-gale to gale-
force NE to ENE winds along with 14 to 18 ft seas are occurring
northeast of the low from 26N to 30N between 40W and 45W.
Additionally, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted along the low and stationary front from 17N to 31N between
32W and 47W. As this low gradually tracks west- northwestward
through Thursday, these gale winds and seas at 16 to 19 ft will
shift westward. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Atlantic Significant North Swell: Large north swell continues to
sustain 12 to 15 ft seas from 17N to 30N between 36W and 66W,
including impacting Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. This
swell will subside overnight into Thu, with seas dropping below 12
ft by late Thu morning.

Western Atlantic and Florida Offshore Gale Warning: A stationary
front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N68W and
the central Bahamas and Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan.
A strong high pressure is forecast to move offshore from the
Carolinas early Thursday morning. Tight pressure gradient between
these two features will cause fresh to strong NE winds currently
across the offshore waters of southeast Florida and north of the
Bahamas to become near-gale to gale-force by mid Thursday morning.
Seas of 8 to 10 ft in these waters will also build further to
between 11 and 17 ft by Thu evening into Thu night. Once the high
has moved farther eastward toward the north-central Atlantic on
Saturday, both winds and seas at these waters should gradually
subside. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is anticipated to form
near the stationary front at the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday, then moves northeastward across central and northern
Florida into the western Atlantic through Sunday. This system
might cause southerly gales and very rough seas in the central and
northeast Florida offshore waters on Sunday, and western Atlantic
waters Sunday night through Monday.

For the Significant North Swell and Western Atlantic/Florida
Offshore Gales, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 05N12W. The ITCZ extends from 05N12W to 06N43W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 10W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The stationary front mentioned in the Special Features section
continues southwestward from the Florida Straits across western
Cuba to just south of the Yucatan Channel. Convergent ENE winds to
its north are causing widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the southeastern Gulf, the Florida Straits
and Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extends
southwestward from a strong 1037 mb high over the southeast U.S.
to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6
to 9 ft are present across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE
to ESE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas exist at the central and
northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3
to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, strong high pressure building across the E
United States will support fresh to strong winds over the E Gulf.
Areal coverage of the fresh to strong winds will increase to the
NW Gulf by early Thursday. A large area of near gale- force winds
will develop over the north- central and E basin Thu through Fri
night with the potential to reach gale- force. Low pressure will
develop N of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat and then
track NE across central Florida Sat night into Sun morning. A cold
front will move into the western Gulf Sat, with strong to near
gale- force winds and rough seas. The front will merge with the
area of low pressure by Sat night and exit the basin Sun morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves northeastward from a 1015 mb low at the
western Gulf of Honduras to the southwestern end of a stationary
front just south of the Yucatan Channel. Another surface trough is
seen at the southwestern basin near the San Andres and Providencia
Islands. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near these features
over the northwestern basin and along the coast of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica. Up to 8 inches of rain was reported at Havana, Cuba
which caused some river flooding. Strong to near- gale ENE trade
winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft are evident at the across this area,
with the highest seas near eastern Panama and northwestern
Colombia. Fresh to strong ENE trades and 8 to 10 ft seas are found
at the central and northeastern basin, and near the Windward
Passage. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 5 to
8 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and waters near Costa Rica
and western Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 6 to 8
ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern
Caribbean through tonight, before gradually diminishing. Fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will diminish Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning on
Significant North Swell and multiple Gale Warnings.

A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across
31N69W and the central Bahamas and Florida Straits to beyond
western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
seen near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. Fresh to
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted behind the
front, including the northwest Bahamas and Florida offshore
waters. Another stationary front curves southwestward from south
of the Azores across 31N33W and a 1010 mb low near 24N44W to near
21N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident north 16N between
32W and 48W. Farther south, a surface trough extends from 06N46W
to 14N49W with no significant convection at this time. Fresh to
strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are exist from 16N to 30N
between the second stationary front and the southeast
Bahamas/Puerto Rico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at
6 to 8 ft dominate the area in between these two areas, including
the central Bahamas.

To the south, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are present from 04N to 16N/20N between 30W and the Lesser
Antilles. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle with
locally moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 4
to 7 ft in moderate NW swell are found north of 07N between the
Africa coast and 30W/second stationary front. Light to gentle
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first stationary front is forecast
to lift northward towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of
Florida today. Strong high pressure building north of the area
will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E
winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas and Straits of
Florida today, with these winds spreading northward and eastward
through Fri. Gale-force winds are expected east of Florida by the
end of the week. An area of low pressure is forecast to move from
the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic waters
this weekend. A large area of gale force winds are possible east
of the low.

$$
AReinhart
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