[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100515
TWDAT

 Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning:

A strong cold front has emerged off the Texas coast in the NW
Gulf, bringing strong to near gale force northerly winds and a
line of thunderstorms with frequent lightning. Gale force
conditions are expected to begin in the NW Gulf by 0600 UTC
tonight. The front will move SE and stretch from Florida to the
Bay of Campeche Sun night, then move SE of the region on Mon.
Gales following the front will remain W of 94W, spreading S into
the Bay of Campeche Sun. Storm conditions will develop offshore
Veracruz Sun afternoon, then prevail into Sun evening. Gale
conditions will end from N to S overnight Sun. Seas in the waters
where gales occur will reach 12 to 16 ft, the subside Mon and
fall below 8 ft Mon night.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast Sun night, then slide east across the waters early
next week. Gales will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N
and W of 75W Sun night into Mon, before the front begins to
weaken and winds decrease some. Seas ahead of the front will reach
7 to 9 ft, with 8 to 11 ft seas behind the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these
Special Features...

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ
is observed from 08N14W to 04N30W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from  04N to 08N between 17W and 40W.


...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front has emerged off the Texas coast in the NW
Gulf, bringing strong to near gale force northerly winds and a
line of thunderstorms with frequent lightning. Please read the
Special Features section above for details on gales and storm
conditions being induced by this strong cold front.

Otherwise, high pressure centered well NE of the region is
retreating further east and weakening, but the associated
ridging continues to provide fairly tranquil marine conditions
to most of the basin ahead of the incoming cold front. Winds are
generally SE and gentle to moderate, with some locally fresh E
winds in the Florida Straits and adjacent Gulf waters. Seas are
2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will bring
hazardous marine conditions to the NW Gulf tonight. Outside of
the gale and storm force winds described in the special features
section, strong to near-gale force winds will follow the front
in the eastern and central Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to accompany the front as it moves across the Gulf of
Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin
late Mon. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front may stall across
the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean early next week, before
moving back northward as a warm front toward the middle of next
week. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure associated with the warm
front may induce strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to
very rough seas across the northern Gulf by the middle of next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A trade wind regime enhanced by a tight pressure gradient
between high pressure in the subtropics and lower pressure in
the tropics is leading to mainly dry conditions across the basin
with strong NE to E winds over the central basin. Fresh to
locally strong winds prevail in the eastern basin, with mainly
moderate to fresh winds in the west. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in the
central basin as well as downwind in the SW Caribbean. Seas in the
eastern Caribbean area 6 to 9 ft and in the NW basin, seas range
from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward
Passage will continue through tonight, and the large area of
strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central and
portions of the SW Caribbean Sea will continue through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong trades in the E Caribbean will
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun. However, by Wed a low may
develop over the central subtropical Atlantic waters, and a
tight pressure gradient will develop, leading to a return of
fresh to strong winds across the E basin Tue night into Thu.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwest
Caribbean early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds with seas
building to 8 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The front will
stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before retreating
back north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a
cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night.

A cold front enters the area near 31N35W and extends to 27N45W
where the boundary is stationary and weakening, stretching to
the Turks and Caicos islands. High pressure situated offshore of
the mid-Atlantic states is supporting a large swath of fresh
NE-E winds behind the front, noted in the latest scatterometer
pass. Seas range from 6 to 10 ft. Locally strong winds are noted
south of 24N, including within the Caribbean passages, where
seas are 8 to 11 ft. Winds shift southerly around the ridge west
of 77W and north of 27N, where seas are around 4 ft. Across the
remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades with mainly 5
to 7 ft seas are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient
between strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure
associated with the dissipating front will continue to produce
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 24N through Sun. On
Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters
east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next
cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW
forecast waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are
likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales possible Sun
night N of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead
and behind the cold front. The front is forecast to stall late Mon
night from Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is
expected to lift N as a warm front. The pressure gradient between
very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure
associated with the warm front may induce fresh to strong NE to E
winds and building seas to the east of Florida by mid-week

$$
Mora
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