[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 092318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning:

A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight. The
front will move SE and stretch from Florida to the Bay of Campeche
Sun night, then move SE of the region on Mon. Gales will quickly
follow the front W of 94W, spreading S into the Bay of Campeche
Sun. Storm conditions will develop offshore Veracruz Sun
afternoon, then prevail into Sun evening. Gale conditions will end
from N to S overnight Sun. Seas in the waters where gales occur
will reach 12 to 16 ft, the subside Mon and fall below 8 ft Mon
night.

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE
U.S. coast Sun night, then slide east across the waters early next
week. Gales will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N and W
of 75W Sun night into Mon, before the front begins to weaken and
winds decrease some. Seas ahead of the front will reach 7 to 9 ft,
with 8 to 11 ft seas behind the front.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts and the Offshore
Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on these Special
FEatures..

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ passes from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to
03N38W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
gales and storm-conditions being induced by a strong cold front
that will move through the basin Sun.

High pressure center well NE of the region is retreating further
east and weakening, but the associated ridging continues to
provide fairly tranquil marine conditions to the basin. A weak
cold front that had been located in the far SW Gulf of Mexico has
dissipated this afternoon. Winds are generally SE and gentle to
moderate, with some locally fresh E winds in the Florida Straits
and adjacent Gulf waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front that will bring
the hazardous marine conditions will reach from Mobile, AL to
Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico
in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon
morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the
front across the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward to
the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. In the eastern
and central Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds will follow the
front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front
as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will
gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Looking ahead, the
aforementioned front may stall across the western Atlantic and NW
Caribbean early next week, before moving back northward as a warm
front toward the middle of next week. The pressure gradient
between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower
pressure associated with the warm front may induce strong to
minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the
northern Gulf by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tradewind regime enhanced by a tight pressure gradient between
high pressure in the subtropics and lower pressure in the tropics
is leading to mainly dry conditions across the basin with strong
NE to E winds over the central basin. Near gale-force winds are
pressure offshore Colombia. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail
in the eastern basin, with mainly moderate to fresh winds in the
west. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the central basin as well as downwind
in the SW Caribbean. Seas in the eastern Caribbean area 6 to 8 ft
and in the NW basin range from 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will persist in the
Windward Passage through tonight. Strong high pressure N of the
area will continue to bring a large area of strong trade winds
across the central Caribbean Sea through tonight, with near-gale
force winds near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are
expected over the south-central Caribbean most of the forecast
period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the
northwest Caribbean early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds
with seas building to 8 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The front
will stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before
retreating back north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a
cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night.

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N35W to the Turks
and Caicos. To its north, a cold front stretches from 31N44W to
26N61W. A surface trough is noted from 15N to 25N along 44W. No of
these features are producing significant convection. Winds in the
basin are highest within about 120 nm N of the stationary
boundary, where strong E winds are occurring. Elsewhere N of the
stationary front, including N of the the cold, winds are NE to E
and mainly fresh, with some veering to the SE N of the Bahamas,
ahead of an approaching cold front in the U.S. To the S and E of
the stationary boundary, winds S of 22N are mainly moderate and E,
with light to moderate and variable winds to the N of 22N.

A broad area of decaying NW swell is leading to seas of 8-11 ft N
and W of a 32N30W to 15N60W, for waters E of 65W. Seas of 8 to 11
ft are also occurring where the strong winds N of the Greater
Antilles are occurring. Elsewhere to the S and E, seas are 5 to 7
ft, with 3 to 6 ft seas over the waters W of 65W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between the
strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure associated with
the dissipating front will continue to produce fresh to strong NE
to E trade winds south of 24N through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong
southerly flow will set up over the waters east of northeast
Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold
front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun.
Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on both sides of the
front, with brief gales possible Sun night N of 29N between NE
Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold front.
The front is forecast to stall late Mon night from Bermuda to
central Cuba. By mid- week, the front is expected to lift N as a
warm front. The pressure gradient between very strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the
warm front may induce fresh to strong NE to E winds and building
seas to the east of Florida by mid-week

$$
Konarik
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