[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091108
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf this evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to
Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico
in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon
morning. Behind the front, gale force NW to N winds are expected
over the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward to the Bay
of Campeche tonight through Sun evening. Storm force NW winds are
expected offshore the Veracruz area Sun afternoon, from 19N to 20N
between 95W and 96.5W. Seas are forecast to build to 16 to 19 ft
with the strongest winds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
accompany the front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds
and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon.

Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front described in the paragraph
above will move into the Atlantic Ocean off NE Florida Sun
evening. As the front moves E, strong to minimal gale force winds
are expected near the front Sun night, north of 29.5N between NE
Florida and 73W. Seas will build to 9 to 11 ft in the area. Winds
are forecast to drop below gale force by Mon morning, when the
front will extend from 31N74W to western Cuba.

For both special features, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast and the Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 09N13W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 02N to 09N between 22W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the Storm Warning over the Western Gulf of
Mexico.

Moderate to locally fresh southerly return flow prevails across
the basin, in between a 1026 mb high pressure centered just west
of Bermuda, and a 1006 mb low pressure centered near Dallas, TX.
The latest buoy and satellite altimeter data indicate seas are 3
to 5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow is
expected to continue through today ahead of a strong cold front
forecast to enter the NW Gulf this evening. The front will reach
from Mobile, AL to Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL
to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and
exit the basin Mon morning. Near-gale to gale force winds are
expected behind the front across the western Gulf, from offshore
Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun
evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are expected offshore of the
Veracruz area Sun afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 16 to
19 ft with the strongest winds. In the eastern and central Gulf,
strong to near-gale force winds will follow the front. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front as it moves
across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside
across the basin late Mon. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front
may stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean early next
week, before moving back northward as a warm front toward the
middle of next week. The gradient between very strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the
warm front may induce fresh to strong E winds and building seas
across the northern Gulf by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between 1026 mb high pressure centered just west of
Bermuda, and lower pressure over Colombia is helping to sustain
strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea from 10N to 18N
between 69W and 82W, with near-gale force winds near the coast of
Colombia. Strong NE winds are also found in the Windward Passage.
Fresh trades are elsewhere. Latest altimeter and buoy data
indicate seas of 9 to 12 ft over the central to SW Caribbean, from
10N to 16N between 71W and 81W. Elsewhere in the eastern and
central Caribbean, as well as the Windward and Mona Passages, seas
are 6 to 9 ft. In the NW Caribbean, seas are 5 to 6 ft. Isolated
showers and tstorms are noted in the NW Caribbean between Jamaica
and Tulum, Mexico.

For the forecast, strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will
continue through tonight. Strong high pressure N of the area will
continue to bring a large area of strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean Sea through Sun, with near-gale force winds at
night near the coast of Colombia. Looking ahead, the next cold
front will enter the northwest Caribbean early Mon, followed by
fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 9 to 11 ft in the
Yucatan Channel. The front will stall over the NW Caribbean early
in the week before retreating back north of the basin as a warm
front by mid-week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
Gale Warning in the western Atlantic, to the east of northern
Florida, with the winds expected Sunday night.

1026 mb high pressure is centered just W of Bermuda. A cold front
extends from 31N37W to 24N50W, and continues as a stationary front
to 21N60W to 21N70W. A secondary cold front extends from 31N47W to
30N50W to 30N56W. Due to the 1026 mb high pressure, light to
gentle anticyclonic winds prevail N of 27N between 62W and 77W.
To the south of 25N and west of 55W, fresh trades are occurring.
Large N to NE swell is still occurring over much of the central
and western Atlantic Ocean. North of 27N and west of 70W, seas are
4 to 7 ft. North of 27N between 60W and 66W, seas are 8 to 10 ft
in N to NE swell. To the south of 25N between the Bahamas and 60W,
seas are 8 to 10 ft due to a combination of fresh to locally
strong trade winds, and the aforementioned N to NE swell. North of
the secondary front, winds are moderate to fresh NW north of 30N
between 40W and 60W. Due to a storm system well north of the area,
seas are 11 to 13 ft north of 28N between 42W and 58W. Seas are 8
to 11 ft elsewhere inside a polygon with vertices 31N65W to
21N72W to 14N55W to 31N30W to 31N65W. A 1027 mb high pressure is
centered near the Madeira Islands and extends ridging west-
southwestward. In the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser
Antilles, fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from near
22N55W to 21N70W. The front will remain nearly stationary along
20N-21N today. Strong high pressure N of the area will push the
front farther south on Sun toward the northern Leeward Islands as
a dissipating front. The gradient between the strong high pressure
along 31N and lower pressure associated with the stalled front
will continue to produce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south
of 24N through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will
set up over the waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in
advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to
move into the NW forecast waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale
force winds are likely on both sides of the front, with brief
gales possible Sun night N of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas
will build ahead and behind the cold front. The front is forecast
to stall late Mon night from Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-
week, the front is forecast to move northwestward as a warm front.
The gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area
and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce fresh
to strong NE to E winds and building seas to the east of Florida
by mid-week.

$$
Hagen
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