[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090506
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to
Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico
in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon
morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the
front across the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas
southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening.
Minimal storm force NW winds are expected over the SW Gulf,
including the Veracruz area Sun afternoon. Seas are forecast to
build to 16 to 18 ft with the strongest winds. A line of strong
thunderstorms is likely to accompany the cold front as it moves
across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside
across the basin late Mon.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N39W to 23N50W, where it becomes a stationary front to the
Dominican Republic near 20N69W. Although winds associated with
this front have diminished south of 31N, large NW swell, with
seas of 12 to 13 ft is present north of 29N and between 45W and
58W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted behind the front to 70W, and
also east of the front to 35W and north of 28N. These seas will
subside gradually and decay below 12 ft by Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both special
features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 079N14W to 06N30W to 03N50W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is observed from 01N to 08N
between 25W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information about the Gale Warning that will begin Saturday
night over the Western Gulf of Mexico.

A 1026 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near
30N71W spreads a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh return flow is noted in the latest scatterometer pass in
the eastern basin east of 86W and in the western basin west of
92W. Gentle southerly flow was captured in the central portions
of the basin where seas are 3 ft or less. Seas elsewhere are 4
to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow will
continue over the western Gulf tonight and Sat ahead of the next
cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. A line of
strong thunderstorms is likely to accompany the cold front as it
moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually
subside across the basin late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures
over Colombia are helping to sustain strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean Sea, which were noted in a recent
scatterometer pass. Seas are 9 to 11 ft offshore NW Colombia,
mainly south of 15N. The scatterometer pass also confirmed fresh
to strong NE winds within the Windward Passage, elevating seas
up to 7 ft. Elsewhere, fresh trade winds are noted in the
eastern Caribbean, where seas are 5 to 7 ft, and moderate NE to
E winds are noted in the NW basin where seas are 3 to 5 ft.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the NW
Caribbean north of 18N.

For the forecast, fresh ENE to E winds in the lee of Cuba will
persist tonight. Strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will
continue through Sat night. Strengthening high pressure N of the
area will bring an increase in the aerial extent of strong trade
winds across the central Caribbean Sea tonight through Sun, with
the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Looking ahead, the
next cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean late Sun night
or early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds with seas building
to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
very rough seas in the central Atlantic, north of 27N between 35W
and 63W.

The main feature in the basin is the front described in the
Special Features section. West of the front, a 1026 mb high
pressure is centered east of Florida near 30N71W. Gentle
anticyclonic winds surround the high north of 25N. Fresh E-NE
winds are noted south of 25N and west of 50W. A scatterometer
pass noted fresh to strong winds near the entrance and within
the Windward Passage. Farther east, fresh tradewinds are noted
from 10N to 25N between 17W and 40W due to the pressure gradient
between high pressure noted over the Madiera Islands and lower
pressures from a trough along the west coast of Africa. Seas are
6 to 8 ft in this region.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary along 20N-21N Sat. Strengthening high pressure N of
the area will push the front farther south on Sun toward the
northern Leeward Islands as a dissipating front. The gradient
between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure
associated with the stalled front will continue to produce fresh
to strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N through Sun. On Sun,
fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters east
of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold
front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast
waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on
both sides of the front, with brief gales possible Sun night N
of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and
behind the cold front.


$$
Mora
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