[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to
Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico
in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon
Morning. Gale force winds are expected behind the front across
the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward to the
Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. Strong NW gales
to near storm-force are possible offshore Veracruz Sun
afternoon. Seas will build to 15 to 19 ft across the SW Gulf of
Mexico. A line of strong thunderstorms is likely to accompany
the cold front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. By Mon
morning, winds and seas will have subsided significantly.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N41W to 23N55W, where it becomes a stationary front to the
Dominican Republic near 19N70W. Although winds associated with
this front have diminished south of 30N, large NW swell, with
seas of 12 to 17 ft are present north of 26N and between the
front and 65W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted between 65W and 75W,
and also east of the front to 37W and north of 25N. These seas
will subside gradually and decay below 12 ft by late Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both special
features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 06N11.5W to 04N49W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is observed along the ITCZ south of 07N between 22W
and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near
29.5N72W spreads ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Cloudiness
with isolated light showers is observed over the northern and
central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds with
seas of 2 to 4 ft are found east of 93W, while moderate to fresh
southerly return flow prevails with seas 3 to 5 ft west of 93W.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow is
expected today through Sat. A strong cold front will enter the
NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to
Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico
in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon
morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the
front across the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas
southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening.
Strong NW gales to near storm-force are possible offshore
Veracruz Sun afternoon. A line of strong thunderstorms is likely
to accompany the cold front as it moves across the Gulf of
Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin
late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures
over Colombia are helping to sustain strong trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh NE to E
winds elsewhere in the basin, east of 81W. Strong winds are
occurring south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the far NW basin. Seas are 7
to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will continue today in the
northwest  Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward
Passage will continue through Sat night. Strengthening high
pressure N of the area will bring an increase in the aerial
extent of strong trade winds across the central Caribbean during
the upcoming weekend, with the strongest winds near the coast of
Colombia. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the
northwest Caribbean late Sun night or early Mon, followed by
fresh N to NE winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
very rough seas in the central Atlantic, north of 26N between 42W
and 65W.

The main feature in the basin is the front described in the
Special Features section, which extends from 31N41W to 22N57W.
West of the front, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered east of
Florida near 29.5N72W. A surface ridge extends ESE from the high
pressure to the east coast of Florida. Gentle anticyclonic winds
and seas of 4 to 6 ft are near the ridge axis. South of 23N and
west of the front, moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds
prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Large N to NE swell prevails to
the east and northeast of the Bahamas.

To the east of the front, a surface ridge extends from 1029 mb
high pressure near the Madeira Islands to a 1019 mb high
pressure near 24N44W. Gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are near
this narrow ridge axis, but much rougher seas are to the north
and northwest, closer to the front. To the south, in the
tropics, moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
prevail from 05N to 20N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, A stationary front extends from near
23N55W to the Dominican Republic near 19N70W. The front will
stretch from  22N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola this
afternoon, then will remain nearly stationary along 21N on Sat.
Strengthening high pressure N of the area will push the front
farther south on Sun reaching the northern Leeward Islands as a
dissipating front. The gradient between the strong high pressure
along 31N and lower pressure associated with the stalled front
will induce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N
this afternoon through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly
flow will set up over the waters east of northeast Florida to
about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is
expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun. Strong to
near-gale force winds are likely on both sides of the front,
with brief gales possible Sun night N of 29N between NE Florida
and 70W. Seas will build both east and west of this cold front.

$$
Nepaul
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