[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081057
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Dec 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW
Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Cedar Key, FL to
Merida, Mexico Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon morning. Gale
force winds are expected behind the front across the western Gulf,
from offshore southern Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat
night through Sun evening. Strong NW gales to near storm-force
are possible offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon. Seas will build to
15 to 19 ft across the SW Gulf of Mexico. A line of strong
thunderstorms is likely to accompany the cold front as it moves
across the Gulf of Mexico. By Mon morning, winds and seas will
have subsided significantly.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from
31N44W to 23.5N55W, where it becomes a stationary front to the
Dominican Republic near 19N70W. Although winds associated with
this front have diminished south of 30N, large NW swell, with seas
of 12-17 ft are present north of 26N and between the front and
65W. Seas of 8-12 ft are noted between 65W and 75W, and also east
of the front to 37W and north of 25N. These seas will subside
gradually and decay below 12 ft by late Sat.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both special
features.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ
extends from 07N17W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is observed within 180 nm N and within 90 nm S of the ITCZ between
28W and 47W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, to the
east of Cape Canaveral FL, spreads ridging over the Gulf of
Mexico. Cloudiness with isolated light showers prevail over
portions of the northern and central Gulf. East of 93W, SE to S
winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except up to
5 ft in the Straits of Florida. West of 93W, moderate to fresh
southerly return flow prevails with seas 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow is
expected today through Sat. A strong cold front will enter the NW
Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to Tuxpan,
Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the NW
Yucatan Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon morning. Strong to
gale force winds are expected behind the front across the western
Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward to the Bay of
Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. Strong NW gales to near
storm-force are possible offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon. A line
of strong thunderstorms is likely to accompany the cold front as
it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually
subside across the basin late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front stretches from southern Haiti to the
N coast of Honduras. A few showers are noted near the boundary
west of 80W. High pressure north of the islands sustains strong to
near-gale force trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea,
with fresh to strong winds elsewhere in the basin, east of 81W.
Strong winds are occurring south of Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh ENE winds are in the far NW basin. Seas
are 7 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean, and 4 to 7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will gradually weaken
today and dissipate by tonight. Fresh NE winds will continue today
to the NW of the front across the northwest Caribbean. Fresh to
strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will continue through Sat
night. Strengthening high pressure N of the area will bring an
increase in the aerial extent of strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean today through the upcoming weekend, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Looking ahead, the
next cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean late Sun night
or early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
very rough seas in the central Atlantic, north of 26N between 42W
and 65W.

The main feature in the basin is the front described in the
Special Features section, which extends from 31N44W to 23.5N55W to
19N70W. To the west of the front, a 1023 mb high pressure is
centered east of Florida near 30N77W. A surface ridge extends ESE
from the high pressure to near 27N57W. Gentle anticyclonic winds
are near the ridge axis. South of 23N and west of the front,
moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds prevail. Large N to
NE swell prevails to the east and northeast of the Bahamas.

To the east of the front, a surface ridge extends from 1027 mb
high pressure near the Madeira Islands to 27N35W to 1019 mb high
pressure near 22N50W. Gentle winds and 4-7 ft seas are near this
narrow ridge axis, but much rougher seas are to the north and
northwest, closer to the front. To the south, in the tropics,
fresh NE trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail from 05N to 20N
between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from near
23N55W to the Dominican Republic near 19N70W. The front will
stretch from 22N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola this afternoon,
then will remain nearly stationary along 21N on Sat. Strengthening
high pressure N of the area will push the front farther south on
Sun reaching the northern Leeward Islands as a dissipating front.
The gradient between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower
pressure associated with the stalled front will induce fresh to
strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N this afternoon through
Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the
waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the
next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW
forecast waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are
likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales possible Sun
night N of 29N between NE Florida and 70W. Seas will build both
east and west of this cold front.

$$
Hagen
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