[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends
from a 1004 mb low pressure near 35N72W to 31N72W to the
northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong NW
winds have developed west of the front and north of 28N, and seas
have recently built to about 7 ft. As the low deepens and moves
eastward across the western Atlantic, it will channel near-gale to
gale W to NW winds behind the front north of 28N between 69W and
75W by early this afternoon. Seas in this area will build to
between 11 and 13 ft. These winds are going to shift eastward
across the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic tonight
through Thursday. Seas will build further to between 14 and 18 ft.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues westward from 05N20W to
04N35W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of
the trough from 01N to 07N between 05W and 18W. Scattered moderate
convection is also present from 02N to 12N between 33W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0900 UTC, the cold front is over the Yucatan Channel and is
exiting the Gulf of Mexico. However, a sharp surface trough still
exists in the west-central Bay of Campeche, offshore of Veracruz,
inducing strong winds and 6 to 7 ft seas from 18.5N to 22N between
92W and 96.5W. In the NE Gulf of Mexico, fresh to strong NW to N
winds and seas 5 to 6 ft are occurring north of 27N and east of
88.5W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail with 3
to 5 ft seas. Cloudiness along with isolated to scattered light
showers prevail over portions of the central and southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to
persist along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico through today.
Strong NE winds will expand across the Bay of Campeche this
afternoon before diminishing tonight. High pressure behind the
front will shift E into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate
to fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat,
ahead of the next cold front that is forecast to enter the NW Gulf
Sat evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely behind
the front, with gale force winds possible in the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor satellite imagery at low to mid levels indicate a
very dry trade-wind pattern over much of the basin. Nevertheless,
convergent trade winds are causing isolated showers between 15N
and 18N across much of the basin. Strong NE to E trade winds
prevail over the south-central Caribbean, locally near-gale force
near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across
the eastern and central Caribbean, with mainly moderate NE winds
in the NW Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan Channel,
where an arriving cold front is inducing fresh NE winds. Seas are
8-10 ft in the south-central basin, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in the
eastern and central Caribbean. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the
northwestern basin.

For the forecast, large NE swell is expected to continue across
the Tropical N Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles
through Thu. The cold front currently in the Yucatan Channel will
reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Thu
night, where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh
to strong NE winds are expected to develop in the vicinity of the
front across the Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba tonight.
Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening with
the front and expand across most of the east and central
Caribbean by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the Atlantic.

Besides the cold front and related seas and weather mentioned in
the Special Features section, another cold front extends
southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N57W to
30N63W, then continues as a warm front to 31N66W, and eventually
connects to the 1004 mb low pressure near 35N72W. Scattered
showers are evident north of 29N between 35W and 52W. A 1022 mb
high pressure centered near 27N44W extends a surface ridge west-
southwestward toward the southeastern Bahamas. The ridge dominates
much of the basin from 19N to 27N, with gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas. Fresh SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are occurring north of
the surface high pressure center, and south of the aforementioned
front, mainly north of 29N between 43W and 54W.

In the eastern Atlantic, another cold front stretches
southwestward from a 1011 mb low south of Portugal across 31N11W
through the Canary Islands 27N20.5W, then continues as a
stationary front to 25N28W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms
are noted within 90 nm of this boundary, aided by an upper-level
low in the vicinity. Strong upper-level flow is carrying thick
cirrus from this convection northeastward across the Cabo Verde
Islands to near the Canary Islands.

In the tropical latitudes, between Africa and the Lesser Antilles,
fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas prevail
from 05N to 17N between 33W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N72W
to the Straits of Florida will move SE and reach from near 31N63W
to eastern Cuba by this evening, then weaken from near 31N48W to
the N coast of Hispaniola Thu evening. Gale-force winds and high
seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the
north of 28N, and east of 75W, this afternoon through Thu
evening. The front will stall along 20N Fri through Sat as strong
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

$$
Hagen
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