[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Dec 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning:

A cold front curves southwestward from a 1009 mb low off the
North Carolina coast across 31N75W and the northwest Bahamas to
beyond the Florida Keys. Widely scattered showers are noted near
and up to 90 nm northwest of this front. Fresh W to NW winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft exist north of 29N between the front and
northeast coast of Florida. As the low deepens and moves eastward
across the western Atlantic, it will channel near-gale to gale W
to NW winds behind the front north of 29N between 69W and 75W by
early Wednesday afternoon. Seas in this area will build to between
11 and 13 ft. These winds are going to shift eastward across the
western Atlantic into the central Atlantic Wednesday night through
Thursday. Seas will build further to between 14 and 18 ft. Please
read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Guinea-
Bissau coast, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. An ITCZ continues
westward from 05N19W across 04N35W to 05N50W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 01N to 06N
between the Liberia coast and 17W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate convection is present up to 150 nm south, and 250 nm
north of the ITCZ west of 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front from the Western Atlantic passes through the Florida
Keys to just north of the Yucatan Peninsula near 22N88W, then
continues southwestward to a 1013 mb low in the central Bay of
Campeche. A surface trough reaches northwestward from this low to
offshore of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring near
the trough and north of the stationary front across the west-
central, southwestern and south-central Gulf. Widely scattered
showers are evident near the cold front over the southeastern
Gulf, and also farther north across the northwestern and north-
central Gulf. Fresh to strong NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are found at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh NNW to NE winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward and
enter the northwestern Caribbean on Wed, accompanied by fresh to
strong winds. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to
persist along the coast near Veracruz, Mexico through Wed. Strong
NE winds will expand across the Bay of Campeche Wed before
diminishing Wed night. High pressure behind the front will shift
eastward into the Atlantic Thu night, inducing moderate to fresh
southerly winds across most of the Gulf Fri through Sat. The next
cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat
evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely behind the
front, with gale-force winds possible in the southwestern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor satellite imagery at low to mid levels, all indicate
a very dry trade-wind pattern over much of the basin.
Nevertheless, convergent trade winds are causing widely scattered
showers between 15N and 18N from the Cayman Islands eastward,
passing through Jamaica and south of Puerto Rico to the northern
Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
are found at the south-central basin. Mainly moderate NE to ENE
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at the northwestern basin.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, large NE swell is expected to continue across
the Tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles through
Thu. A cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern
Caribbean Wed morning, and reach from the northern coast of
Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night, where it will remain
nearly stationary through Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds are
anticipated to develop in the vicinity of the front across the
Yucatan Channel and in the lee of Cuba on Wed night. Strong winds
will develop in the Windward Passage Thu evening near the front
and then expand across most of the central and eastern Caribbean
by Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in
the Atlantic.

Besides the cold front and related seas and weather mentioned in
the Special Features section, Another cold front extends
southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to
south of Bermuda near 29N65W, then continues as a dissipating
stationary front across the central Bahamas to the Florida
Straits. Widely scattered showers are evident near and up to 50 nm
north of this boundary. At the eastern Atlantic, yet a third cold
front stretches southwestward from a 1007 mb low south of Portugal
across 31N12W to near 26N23W, then continues as a stationary
front to 25N28W. Scattered showers are noted near and up to 90 nm
northwest of this boundary. Aided by an upper-level low near
25N26W, scattered thunderstorms are occurring near the stationary
front. A surface trough runs northward from north of French Guiana
at 07N53W to 14N52W. Scattered moderate convection persist near
and east of this feature from 10N to 14N between 38W and 52W.
Strong upper-level flow is carrying thick cirrus from this
convection northeastward across the Cabo Verde Islands to near the
Canary Islands.

Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present near
and east of the second cold front north of 29N between 40W and
58W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NNE to SSE winds and 4 to 7 ft
seas are seen north of 20N between the Africa coast and first cold
front/Bahamas, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE winds and
seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell dominate from 05N
to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. Farther west,
moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist from 05N
to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle
southerly and monsoonal winds prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will move
southeastward and reach from near 31N62W to eastern Cuba by Wed
evening, then reach from near 31N55W to the northern coast of
Hispaniola while weakening Thu evening. Gale-force winds and high
seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the
north of 28N, Wed afternoon through Thu evening. The front will
stall along 20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds
across the western Atlantic.

$$

Chan
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