[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N15W. The ITCZ stretches from
08N15W to 05N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04N to 11N between 16W and 33W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf. A diffluent pattern aloft
supports scattered showers and thunderstorms along the frontal
boundary, and over the NE part of the Gulf. The most recent
scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh SE winds ahead of
the front. Winds increase near the thunderstorms over the NE
Gulf. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft based on altimeter data and
buoy observations.

For the forecast, the cold front will slowly move offshore the
coast this evening. It will reach from southwestern Louisiana to
near Brownsville, Texas late tonight into early Sat, from
southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Sat evening, from
the Florida peninsula to the Bay of Campeche by Sun night, from
the western Florida panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico early Sun,
then reach from north-central Florida to the SW Gulf early on Mon
and extend from central Cuba to near the northern Yucatan
Peninsula and to the SW Gulf on Tue before becoming stationary
during Tue and dissipate by late Tue night. High pressure will
build across the area in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong
northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz,
Mexico from Sun afternoon through Wed. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds are expected Tue night from 22N to 26N west of 90W.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the region combined with the Colombian low
supports fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 8 to 11 ft based on an altimeter pass
and buoy 42058 located near 15N75W. The highest seas are occurring
off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh E winds, along with seas of 5
to 8 ft, are noted in the north-central Caribbean. Similar wind
speeds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the remainder of the E and
central Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds are noted in the
NW part of the region. Patches of low level moisture, embedded
in the trade wind flow, are moving across the area producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient resulting from strong
high pressure north of the area combining with relatively lower
pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night.
As the high weakens and shifts eastward, the area of fresh to
strong trade winds will diminish some next week. A cold front is
expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed and Wed
night, followed by fresh northeast winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast waters near 31N38W,
then continues SW to near 22N62W. A shear-line extends from this
point and parallel to the Bahamas to near 29N80W. A few showers
are along the front, except within about 60 nm S of the shear-
line between 65W and 68W where an area of showers and thunderstorms
is noted. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft
follow the front. A band of fresh to strong easterly winds is
also noted within about 150-200 nm N of the shear-line. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of
high pressure, with a weak 1011 mb low pressure over the Canary
Islands. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are in the SE quadrant
of the low center, reaching the coast of Morocco. Seas of 8 to
11 ft are seen, based on altimeter data, N of 22N and E of 35W
in N swell. Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west to 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
weaken as it moves southeastward through early on Sat afternoon.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas due to a
northwest swell in the wake of the front will gradually subside
through Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure centered well north
of the region will shift eastward and weaken into early next week
in response to a cold front that is expected to emerge off the
coast of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The front is forecast
to reach from near 31N74W to the central Bahamas and to near the
Florida Keys Mon night, and begin to weaken as it reaches from
near 31N55W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east- central Cuba
by Tue night. Another cold front is expected to move across the
western part of the area Wed and Wed night, followed by fresh to
strong northwest to north winds and building seas.

$$
GR
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