[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Dec 01 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 09N13W, to 08N15W. The ITCZ continues from
08N15W, to 07N20W 06N29W, and along 01N/02N between 34W and
39W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered
strong is within 200 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
19W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 210 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 24W and
30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder
of the area that is from 14N southward from 60W eastward.
A surface trough is along 42W/43W from 13N to 25N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 360 nm to the
east of the surface trough from 10N to 15N, and from 20N
to 26N between 39W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An inland Texas cold front is approaching the coast.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 27N
northward between the Florida Big Bend and 91W. Broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
in the rest of the area that is from 90W westward, and
from 23N northward from 90W eastward.

Strong to near gale-force SE winds were within 240 nm of the
coast between 90W and 94W during the early morning hours of
today. Those faster winds have been replaced by mostly fresh
to some strong SE winds in the central one-third of the
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds have
been in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Mostly moderate to some rough seas are off the coast of
Louisiana. Moderate seas cover nearly all the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico. The exception is for slight seas from the Tampa
Florida coastal areas toward the Florida Big Bend coastal waters.

A weak cold front just inland the Texas coast will reach from
southwestern Louisiana to near Brownsville, Texas early Sat,
from southeastern Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Sat
evening, from the Florida peninsula to the Bay of Campeche by
Sun night, from the western Florida panhandle to near Tampico,
Mexico early Sun, then reach from north-central Florida to the
SW Gulf early on Mon and extend from central Cuba to near the
northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW Gulf on Tue before
becoming stationary during Tue and Tue night. High pressure
will build across the area in the wake of the front. Fresh
to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf
near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun afternoon into early Tue.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are expected Tue night
from 22N to 26N west of 90W.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda
High pressure center that is to the north of the region and
comparatively lower surface pressure that is NW South America,
has set up the following scenario: Fresh NE-to-E winds are
from NE Colombia eastward. Mostly fresh to some strong
NE winds are between NE Colombia and the coasts of the
countries of Central America and 83W/84W. Moderate or slower
wind speeds are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas
are within 130 nm of the coast of Colombia. Moderate seas
cover the area from the NE corner of the area to the
SW corner of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere.

Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated showers
throughout the area. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W,
southwestward, beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica.

The gradient resulting from strong high pressure north of the
area combining with relatively lower pressure in the
southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. As the
high weakens and shifts eastward, the area of fresh to
strong trade winds will diminish some early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N42W, to 26N50W 22N60W 23N71W.
Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from the cold front
northward from 60W eastward, within 330 nm to the north of
the cold front between 60W and 71W. Mostly fresh to some
strong E to SE winds are from 26N northward from 71W westward.
Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from the cold front
northward from 60W eastward, and within 250 nm to the north
of the cold front between 60W and 76W.

A cold front passes through the coastal plains of Morocco
and the Western Sahara. The front becomes dissipating at the
coast of Africa, to 20N25W 18N34W 19N38W. A surface trough
is from 120 nm to 300 nm to the north of the cold front
from 30W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from
16N northward from 40W eastward. Rough seas are to the
northeast of the line 31N40W 28N34W 23N32W 23N22W 31N16W.
Fresh SW winds are between the cold front and the surface
trough from 20W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 29N
northward between 20W and 28W. Moderate or slower wind
speeds are elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.
Fresh NE winds are from 22N southward between 60W and 70W,
and from 05N to 16N between 25W and 60W. Moderate or slower
winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from near 25N55W to 22N61W and
to 23N71W will weaken as it moves southeastward through
early on Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds and rough seas due to a northwest swell in the wake
of the front will gradually subside through Sat afternoon.
Strong high pressure centered well north of the region
will shift eastward and weaken into early next week in
response to a cold front that is expected to emerge off
the coast of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The
front is expected to reach from near 31N74W to the
central Bahamas and to near the Florida Keys Mon night
and weaken as it reaches from near 28N65W to the
southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba by Tue
night.

$$
MT/JA
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