[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KTAE 290315
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ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-291115-

Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL  AL102023
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 /1015 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023/

This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal
      Taylor, and Coastal Wakulla
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Inland Wakulla and Leon
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Brooks, Inland Dixie,
      Inland Jefferson, Inland Taylor, Lafayette, Lanier, Lowndes,
      and Madison
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Gulf,
      Gadsden, Grady, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Liberty, and
      Thomas
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Berrien, Colquitt, and
      Cook

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 540 miles south of Steinhatchee River
    - 22.0N 85.0W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

As of 11 PM EDT, Idalia has is moving northward at 8 MPH and maximum
sustained winds remain near 70 mph, just below hurricane strength.
Idalia is expected to strengthen and is expected to become a Major
Hurricane on Tuesday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Idalia is
forecast to make landfall early Wednesday along the Nature Coast as
a Major Hurricane.

The potential for life-threatening storm surge around the shores of
Apalachee Bay continues to increase. Storm surge will be highly
dependent on the storm track, with the highest surge values along
and to the right of the center. Storm surge could start to build as
soon as Tuesday afternoon, with peak surge values coming on Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Indian Pass to the Suwanee
River for the danger of life threatening inundation from rising
water moving inland. Storm surge inundation above normally dry
ground could reach the following heights, if the peak surge occurs
with high tide: 1 to 3 feet from Mexico Beach to Indian Pass, 3 to 5
feet from Indian Pass to the Ochlockonee River, 5 to 8 feet from the
Ochlockonee River to the Aucilla River, and 8 to 12 feet from the
Aucilla River to the Suwannee River. The deepest water will occur
along the immediate coast, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and dangerous waves.

In addition, the odds of hurricane force winds are increasing over
the southeast Big Bend. Probabilities of tropical storm force winds
across the Big Bend and south central Georgia also continue to
increase. Probabilities for both tropical storm and hurricane force
winds remain nearly steady since the last advisory. The forecast
hurricane intensity at landfall remains the same since the last
advisory, with Idalia expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Indian Pass to the Suwanee
River, including inland portions of the eastern Florida Big Bend. A
Hurricane Watch is in effect for Leon and inland Wakulla Counties. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Mexico Beach to Indian
Pass, including the remainder of the Western Florida Big Bend.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Warnings are in
effect for the lower I-75 corridor of Georgia.

Tropical storm force winds are most likely to arrive along the coast
on Tuesday evening, but they could arrive as early as Tuesday
afternoon. It is recommended that preparations for Idalia be
completed before sunset on Tuesday, if not sooner. Expect downed
trees and powerlines, with prolonged power outages possible.

Rainfall amounts will be heaviest along and east of the track of
Idalia, especially in the eastern Florida Big Bend, where 5 to 8
inches of rain are forecast, with isolated higher amounts possible.
This could lead to life threatening flash flooding. The storm should
be moving fast enough to preclude river flooding at this time.
Isolated tornadoes are possible and life-threatening rip currents
will affect beaches well away from the core of the storm.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible devastating
impacts across Taylor and Dixie Counties. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
      accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
      buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
      from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
      severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
      onshore and stranded.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant to extensive impacts across Wakulla and Jefferson Counties.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across Franklin County.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across coastal and southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
      and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
      greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
      may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    - Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across the remainder of the Florida Big Bend into the lower I-75
corridor of Georgia.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across the eastern Florida Big Bend and the I-75
corridor of Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across the remainder of the Florida Big Bend and
portions of Southwest Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across the remainder of the eastern Florida Big Bend into the I-75
corridor of Georgia.

Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or on
a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong
winds or flooding.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Tallahassee FL around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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