[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Tropical Storm Idalia Local Statement Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL102023
557 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023

This product covers East Central Florida


**Tropical Storm Idalia On The Cusp Of Becoming A Hurricane**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Orange, Osceola, and Seminole

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Northern Lake,
      Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Southern Lake
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Volusia, Inland
      Northern Brevard, Inland Southern Brevard, Inland Volusia,
      Mainland Northern Brevard, Mainland Southern Brevard, Northern
      Brevard Barrier Islands, and Southern Brevard Barrier Islands

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 550 miles south-southwest of Leesburg FL
    - 21.4N 85.1W
    - Storm Intensity 70 mph
    - Movement North or 360 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The center of Tropical Storm Idalia is located around 35 miles
south of the western tip of Cuba late this afternoon. With maximum
sustained winds of 70 mph, Idalia is moving north at about 8 mph, and
a continued northward motion is expected tonight and Tuesday. Idalia
is forecast to cross the Florida Gulf coast late on Wednesday as a
major hurricane. Preparations should be ongoing for local tropical
storm conditions by Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Lake county. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect for Osceola, Orange and Seminole
counties. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Volusia and
Brevard Counties. For the Atlantic waters, a Tropical Storm Watch
remains in effect north of Sebastian Inlet.

Showers and squalls associated with outer rain bands from Idalia
should reach central Florida on Tuesday, with conditions further
deteriorating Tuesday night and Wednesday as Idalia accelerates
north-northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The possibility
of strong to damaging wind gusts in squalls will increase as tropical
storm force winds extend well eastward from the storm's center. Based
on the current forecast track, Idalia will make its closest pass to
east-central Florida late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning,
continuing northeastward during the day on Wednesday. Wednesday will
be a windy day even outside of squalls.

While the heaviest rainfall from Idalia is currently forecast to fall
along the Gulf Coast and western Florida Peninsula, gusty squalls will
be capable of torrential downpours, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.
One to two inches of rain from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
night is forecast for coastal areas and Okeechobee County, and two to
four inches is forecast west of I-95 from Brevard and Osceola Counties
northward, with locally higher amounts possible. Locations in closer
proximity to the center of Idalia, generally along and west of
Interstate Four in east-central Florida, may receive higher rainfall
totals.

In addition to strong wind gusts, a threat for tornadoes is forecast
to develop from Tuesday afternoon continuing into Wednesday.

Incoming Atlantic swell from Major Hurricane Franklin combined with
winds from Idalia will lead to high seas, rough surf, an increase in
life-threatening rip currents, and beach erosion during high tides
during Tuesday and Wednesday.

Do not let your guard down. Impacts from Idalia will be felt far from
the center of the storm. Now is the time to ensure your hurricane
supply kit is stocked and your safety plan is in place.

As Idalia becomes better organized through tonight, additional changes
to the current forecast are possible. Any eastward adjustments in the
forecast track would increase the potential for local impacts, so
continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts
across portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts in this area
include:
    - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
      to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
      experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
      homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
      objects become dangerous projectiles.
    - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
      numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
      fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
      routes impassable.
    - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent
      in areas with above ground lines.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across portions of east central Florida. Potential
impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals, and
      ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.


* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.


* SURGE:
Direct surge impacts from Idalia are not currently anticipated at this time.
However, larger swells and surf combined with Hurricane Franklin will bring
a threat for minor coastal   flooding and beach erosion. Locations more
vulnerable to coastal flooding and beach erosion, such as portions of the
Volusia and Brevard county coast, should stay updated on the latest forecasts.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a
safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for
those under evacuation orders.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit
and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home
or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm.

When securing your property, outside preparations should be
concluded as soon as possible before conditions deteriorate. The
onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain
preparedness activities to become unsafe.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways
to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around Midnight EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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